Emerg Infect Dis. 2024 Sep;30(9):1850-1864. doi: 10.3201/eid3009.240468.
Plague is a deadly zoonosis that still poses a threat in many regions of the world. We combined epidemiologic, host, and vector surveillance data collected during 1961-1980 from the Araripe Plateau focus in northeastern Brazil with ecologic, geoclimatic, and Yersinia pestis genomic information to elucidate how these factors interplay in plague activity. We identified well-delimited plague hotspots showing elevated plague risk in low-altitude areas near the foothills of the plateau's concave sectors. Those locations exhibited distinct precipitation and vegetation coverage patterns compared with the surrounding areas. We noted a seasonal effect on plague activity, and human cases linearly correlated with precipitation and rodent and flea Y. pestis positivity rates. Genomic characterization of Y. pestis strains revealed a foundational strain capable of evolving into distinct genetic variants, each linked to temporally and spatially constrained plague outbreaks. These data could identify risk areas and improve surveillance in other plague foci within the Caatinga biome.
鼠疫是一种致命的人畜共患病，在世界许多地区仍然构成威胁。我们将 1961-1980 年期间在巴西东北部的阿雷里皮高原疫区收集的流行病学、宿主和媒介监测数据与生态、地理气候和鼠疫耶尔森菌基因组信息相结合，以阐明这些因素在鼠疫活动中的相互作用。我们确定了界限分明的鼠疫热点，这些热点显示在高原凹面扇形区山麓附近的低海拔地区鼠疫风险升高。与周围地区相比，这些地点的降水和植被覆盖模式明显不同。我们注意到鼠疫活动存在季节性影响，人类病例与降水以及啮齿动物和跳蚤鼠疫耶尔森菌阳性率呈线性相关。鼠疫耶尔森菌菌株的基因组特征表明存在一种基础菌株，能够进化成不同的遗传变体，每个变体都与时间和空间上有限的鼠疫爆发有关。这些数据可以确定风险区域，并改善卡廷加生物群落内其他鼠疫疫区的监测。
