Yuan Xing, Yang Linsheng, Li Hairong, Wang Li
Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China.
College of Resources and Environment, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China.
Biology (Basel). 2022 Feb 13;11(2):304. doi: 10.3390/biology11020304.
Plague persists in the plague natural foci today. Although previous studies have found climate drives plague dynamics, quantitative analysis on animal plague risk under climate change remains understudied. Here, we analyzed plague dynamics in the Tibetan Plateau (TP) which is a climate-sensitive area and one of the most severe animal plague areas in China to disentangle variations in marmot plague enzootic foci, diffusion patterns, and their possible links with climate and anthropogenic factors. Specifically, we developed a time-sharing ecological niche modelling framework to identify finer potential plague territories and their temporal epidemic trends. Models were conducted by assembling animal records and multi-source ecophysiological variables with actual ecological effects (both climatic predictors and landscape factors) and driven by matching plague strains to periods corresponding to meteorological datasets. The models identified abundant animal plague territories over the TP and suggested the spatial patterns varied spatiotemporal dimension across the years, undergoing repeated spreading and contractions. Plague risk increased in the 1980s and 2000s, with the risk area increasing by 17.7 and 55.5 thousand km, respectively. The 1990s and 2010s were decades of decreased risk, with reductions of 71.9 and 39.5 thousand km, respectively. Further factor analysis showed that intrinsic conditions (i.e., elevation, soil, and geochemical landscape) provided fundamental niches. In contrast, climatic conditions, especially precipitation, led to niche differentiation and resulted in varied spatial patterns. Additionally, while increased human interference may temporarily reduce plague risks, there is a strong possibility of recurrence. This study reshaped the plague distribution at multiple time scales in the TP and revealed multifactorial synergistic effects on the spreading and contraction of plague foci, confirming that TP plague is increasingly sensitive to climate change. These findings may facilitate groups to take measures to combat the plague threats and prevent potential future human plague from occurring.
鼠疫如今仍在鼠疫自然疫源地存在。尽管先前的研究发现气候驱动着鼠疫动态，但气候变化下动物鼠疫风险的定量分析仍研究不足。在此，我们分析了青藏高原（TP）的鼠疫动态，该地区是气候敏感区，也是中国动物鼠疫最严重的地区之一，以厘清旱獭鼠疫自然疫源地的变化、扩散模式及其与气候和人为因素的可能联系。具体而言，我们开发了一个分时生态位建模框架，以识别更精细的潜在鼠疫区域及其时间流行趋势。通过将动物记录和多源生态生理变量与实际生态效应（气候预测因子和景观因素）相结合，并将鼠疫菌株与对应气象数据集的时期相匹配来驱动模型。这些模型识别出青藏高原上有大量动物鼠疫区域，并表明多年来空间模式在时空维度上有所变化，经历了反复的扩散和收缩。鼠疫风险在20世纪80年代和21世纪有所增加，风险区域分别增加了1.77万平方千米和5.55万平方千米。20世纪90年代和21世纪10年代是风险降低的十年，分别减少了7.19万平方千米和3.95万平方千米。进一步的因素分析表明，内在条件（即海拔、土壤和地球化学景观）提供了基础生态位。相比之下，气候条件，尤其是降水，导致了生态位分化并产生了不同的空间模式。此外，虽然人类干扰增加可能会暂时降低鼠疫风险，但复发的可能性很大。本研究重塑了青藏高原多个时间尺度上的鼠疫分布，并揭示了对鼠疫疫源地扩散和收缩的多因素协同效应，证实青藏高原鼠疫对气候变化越来越敏感。这些发现可能有助于相关群体采取措施应对鼠疫威胁，并预防未来潜在的人类鼠疫发生。
