Department of Microbiology, Institute Aggeu Magalhães-Fiocruz PE, Recife, Pernambuco, Brazil.
Department of Parasitology, Institute Aggeu Magalhães-Fiocruz PE, Recife, Pernambuco, Brazil.
PLoS One. 2021 Apr 2;16(4):e0249464. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0249464. eCollection 2021.
Along with other countries in America, plague reached Brazil through the sea routes during the third pandemic. A brief ports phase was followed by an urban phase that took place in smaller inland cities and finally, it attained the rural area and established several foci where the ecological conditions were suitable for its continued existence. However, the geographic dispersion of plague in Brazil is still poorly studied. To better understand the disease dynamics, we accessed satellite-based data to trace the spatial occurrence and distribution of human plague cases in Pernambuco, Northeastern Brazil and using the municipality of Exu as study case area. Along with the satellite data, a historical survey using the Plague Control Program files was applied to characterize the spatial and temporal dispersion of cases in the period of 1945-1976. Kernel density estimation, spatial and temporal clusters with statistical significance and maximum entropy modeling were used for spatial data analysis, by means of the spatial analysis software packages. The use of geostatistical tools allowed evidencing the shift of the infection from the urban to the wild-sylvatic areas and the reemergence of cases after a period of quiescence, independent of the reintroduction from other plague areas.
与美洲其他国家一样，在第三次大流行期间，瘟疫通过海路传播到了巴西。短暂的港口阶段之后是城市阶段，发生在较小的内陆城市，最后，它进入了农村地区，并建立了几个生态条件适合其持续存在的焦点。然而，巴西的鼠疫地理分布仍研究不足。为了更好地了解疾病动态，我们利用基于卫星的数据来追踪巴西东北部伯南布哥州人类鼠疫病例的空间发生和分布情况，并以埃苏市作为研究案例区。除了卫星数据，我们还使用了《鼠疫控制计划》档案进行历史调查，以描述 1945-1976 年期间病例的时空分布情况。我们利用空间分析软件包，采用核密度估计、具有统计意义的时空聚类和最大熵建模等方法对空间数据进行分析。地理统计工具的使用证明了感染从城市向野生-森林地区的转移，以及在一段时间的平静期后病例的重新出现，这与来自其他鼠疫地区的再引入无关。
