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一种面向最终用户的全新动态方法,用于对单个设施的灾后恢复力进行量化。

A new end-user-oriented and dynamic approach to post-disaster resilience quantification for individual facilities.

作者信息

Cremen Gemma

机构信息

Department of Civil, Environmental and Geomatic Engineering, University College London, London, UK.

出版信息

Risk Anal. 2025 Mar;45(3):701-709. doi: 10.1111/risa.17637. Epub 2024 Aug 23.

Abstract

Community recovery from a disaster is a complex process, in which the importance of different types of infrastructure functionality can change over time. Most of the myriad of metrics available for measuring disaster resilience do not capture the dynamic importance of functionality explicitly, however. This means that very different recovery trajectories of a given infrastructure can correspond to the same resilience value, regardless of variations in its utility over time. While some efforts have been made to integrate features of time dependency into individual facility resilience quantification, the resulting metrics either capture only a limited set of temporal instances throughout the post-disaster phase or do not offer a way to prioritize time steps in line with variations in the importance of facility functionality. This study proposes a novel, straightforward metric for component-level post-disaster resilience quantification that overcomes the aforementioned limitations. The metric involves a dynamic weighting component that enables stakeholders to place varying emphasis on different temporal points throughout the recovery process. The end-user-centered approach to resilience quantification facilitated by the metric allows for flexible, context-specific interpretations of infrastructure functionality importance that may vary across different communities. The metric is demonstrated through a hypothetical case study of infrastructure facilities with varying degrees of importance across the post-disaster recovery period, which showcases its versatility relative to a previously well-established measurement of component-level resilience. The proposed metric has significant potential for use in stakeholder-driven approaches to decision making on critical infrastructure (as well as other types of built environment) recovery and resilience.

摘要

社区从灾难中恢复是一个复杂的过程,在此过程中,不同类型基础设施功能的重要性会随时间而变化。然而,可用于衡量灾难恢复力的众多指标中,大多数并未明确体现功能的动态重要性。这意味着,给定基础设施截然不同的恢复轨迹可能对应相同的恢复力值,而不论其效用随时间如何变化。虽然已有人努力将时间依赖性特征纳入单个设施恢复力量化中,但所得指标要么仅涵盖灾后阶段有限的一组时间点,要么未提供根据设施功能重要性变化对时间步长进行优先级排序的方法。本研究提出了一种新颖、简单的指标,用于组件级灾后恢复力量化,克服了上述局限性。该指标包含一个动态加权组件,使利益相关者能够在整个恢复过程中对不同时间点给予不同程度的重视。该指标所推动的以最终用户为中心的恢复力量化方法,允许对基础设施功能重要性进行灵活的、因地制宜的解读,而这种重要性在不同社区可能有所不同。通过一个假设的案例研究对该指标进行了演示,该案例研究涉及灾后恢复期重要性不同的基础设施设施,展示了其相对于先前成熟的组件级恢复力测量方法的通用性。所提出的指标在利益相关者驱动的关键基础设施(以及其他类型的建筑环境)恢复和恢复力决策方法中具有巨大的应用潜力。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/c23f/11954729/464dd3e214d1/RISA-45-701-g002.jpg

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