Karplus Valerie J, Iacob Ioana, Moore Emily J, Morgan M Granger
Department of Engineering and Public Policy, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA.
Wilton E. Scott Institute for Energy Innovation, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA.
Risk Anal. 2025 Mar;45(3):581-599. doi: 10.1111/risa.17449. Epub 2024 Aug 24.
Early investments in regional hydrogen systems carry two distinct types of risk: (1) economic risk that projects will not be financially viable, resulting in stranded capital, and (2) environmental risk that projects will not deliver deep reductions in greenhouse gas emissions and through leaks, perhaps even contribute to climate change. This article systematically reviews the literature and performs analysis to describe both types of risk in the context of recent efforts in the United States and worldwide to support the development of "hydrogen hubs" or regional systems of hydrogen production and use. We review estimates of hydrogen production costs and projections of how future costs are likely to change over time for different production routes, environmental impacts related to hydrogen and methane leaks, and the availability and effectiveness of carbon capture and sequestration. Finally, we consider system-wide risks associated with evolving regional industrial structures, including job displacement and underinvestment in shared components, such as refueling. We conclude by suggesting a set of design principles that should be applied in developing early hydrogen hubs if they are to be a successful step toward creating a decarbonized energy system.
（1）经济风险，即项目在财务上不可行，导致资本搁浅；（2）环境风险，即项目无法大幅减少温室气体排放，甚至可能因泄漏而加剧气候变化。本文系统地回顾了相关文献并进行了分析，以在美国和全球近期支持“氢枢纽”或区域氢生产与使用系统发展的背景下，描述这两种风险。我们回顾了氢生产成本的估计以及不同生产路线未来成本随时间可能变化的预测、与氢和甲烷泄漏相关的环境影响，以及碳捕获与封存的可用性和有效性。最后，我们考虑了与不断演变的区域产业结构相关的全系统风险，包括就业岗位转移和对共享组件（如加氢设施）的投资不足。我们建议，如果早期氢枢纽要成为迈向创建脱碳能源系统的成功一步，在其发展过程中应应用一套设计原则。
