Department of Ecology, Environment and Plant Sciences, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden.
The Bolin Centre for Climate Research, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden.
Glob Chang Biol. 2024 Aug;30(8):e17471. doi: 10.1111/gcb.17471.
Climate change has triggered poleward expansions in the distributions of various taxonomic groups, including tree species. Given the ecological significance of trees as keystone species in forests and their socio-economic importance, projecting the potential future distributions of tree species is crucial for devising effective adaptation strategies for both biomass production and biodiversity conservation in future forest ecosystems. Here, we fitted physiographically informed habitat suitability models (HSMs) at 50-m resolution across Sweden (55-68° N) to estimate the potential northward expansion of seven broadleaved tree species within their leading-edge distributions in Europe under different future climate change scenarios and for different time periods. Overall, we observed that minimum temperature was the most crucial variable for comprehending the spatial distribution of broadleaved tree species at their cold limits. Our HSMs projected a complex range expansion pattern for 2100, with individualistic differences among species. However, a frequent and rather surprising pattern was a northward expansion along the east coast followed by narrow migration pathways along larger valleys towards edaphically suitable areas in the north-west, where most of the studied species were predicted to expand. The high-resolution maps generated in this study offer valuable insights for our understanding of range shift dynamics at the leading edge of southern tree species as they expand into the receding boreal biome. These maps suggest areas where broadleaved tree species could already be translocated to anticipate forest and biodiversity conservation adaptation efforts in the face of future climate change.
气候变化引发了各种分类群（包括树种）分布的极向扩张。鉴于树木作为森林中关键物种的生态意义及其在社会经济中的重要性，预测树种的潜在未来分布对于制定未来森林生态系统中生物量生产和生物多样性保护的有效适应策略至关重要。在这里，我们在瑞典（55-68°N）以 50 米的分辨率拟合了基于地形的栖息地适宜性模型（HSM），以估计在不同未来气候变化情景和不同时间段下，七种阔叶树种在其欧洲前沿分布中的潜在北扩。总体而言，我们观察到，最低温度是理解最适温度下限处阔叶树种空间分布的最关键变量。我们的 HSM 预测了 2100 年复杂的范围扩张模式，物种之间存在个体差异。然而，一个常见且相当令人惊讶的模式是沿着东海岸向北扩张，然后沿着较大的山谷向西北方向的土壤适宜地区进行狭窄的迁移，预计大多数研究物种将在这些地区扩张。本研究生成的高分辨率地图为我们理解南部树种前缘的范围转移动态提供了有价值的见解，因为它们向退缩的北方生物区扩展。这些地图表明，在面临未来气候变化时，已经可以将阔叶树种转移到这些地区，以预测森林和生物多样性保护的适应工作。
