Liu Yu, Chen Lin
College of Horticulture and Forestry Sciences/Hubei Engineering Technology Research Center for Forestry Information Huazhong Agricultural University Wuhan China.
Qinghai Academy of Agriculture and Forestry Qinghai University Xining China.
Ecol Evol. 2024 Nov 3;14(11):e70528. doi: 10.1002/ece3.70528. eCollection 2024 Nov.
This study investigates the impact of climate change on the distribution of species in China using the MaxEnt model. Key environmental variables, such as Bio6 (mean temperature of the coldest month) and human footprint, emerged as significant determinants of habitat suitability. The study reveals substantial shifts in suitable habitats due to global warming and increased precipitation, with notable expansion towards higher latitudes. Species like Fisch. ex Bess. and Maxim. demonstrate resilience in extreme conditions, highlighting the importance of specific ecological traits for conservation. Future projections under various SSP scenarios predict continued habitat expansion, emphasizing the need for targeted conservation strategies to address the critical role of human activities. This research highlights the complex interplay between climatic, topographic, and anthropogenic factors in shaping habitats, advocating for integrated adaptive management approaches to ensure their sustainability amid ongoing climate change.
本研究使用最大熵模型（MaxEnt）调查气候变化对中国物种分布的影响。关键环境变量，如生物6（最冷月平均温度）和人类足迹，成为栖息地适宜性的重要决定因素。研究表明，由于全球变暖和降水增加，适宜栖息地发生了显著变化，向高纬度地区有明显扩张。诸如费氏贝母（Fisch. ex Bess.）和轮叶贝母（Maxim.）等物种在极端条件下表现出恢复力，突出了特定生态特征对保护的重要性。在各种共享社会经济路径（SSP）情景下的未来预测表明适宜栖息地将持续扩张，强调需要制定有针对性的保护策略，以应对人类活动的关键作用。本研究突出了气候、地形和人为因素在塑造栖息地方面的复杂相互作用，倡导采用综合适应性管理方法，以确保在持续的气候变化中栖息地的可持续性。
