Clinical Laboratory, Children's Hospital Affiliated to Shandong University, 23976 Jing-Shi Road, Jinan, 250022, Shandong Province, People's Republic of China.
Clinical Laboratory, Jinan Children's Hospital, Jinan, People's Republic of China.
Sci Rep. 2024 Aug 27;14(1):19892. doi: 10.1038/s41598-024-71010-4.
Since October 2023, a significant outbreak of Mycoplasma Pneumoniae Pneumonia (MPP) has been observed in children in northern China. Chinese health authorities have attributed this epidemiological to immune debt resulting from the relaxation of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) control measures. This study described the epidemiological features of Mycoplasma pneumoniae (MP) prevalence in children and developed a straightforward prediction model to differentiate between MPP and viral pneumonia in children. The infection rate of MP in children notably increased from 8.12 in 2022 to 14.94% in 2023, peaking between October and November, especially among school-age children. Logistic regression screening identified four key indicators: Age, D-Dimer levels, erythrocyte sedimentation rate, and gender. The developed nomogram exhibited a receiver operator characteristic curve-area under the curve (ROC-AUC) of 0.858, with external validation confirming an ROC-AUC of 0.794. This study examined the epidemiological characteristics of MPP prevalence in children in Shandong Province during and after the COVID-19 pandemic. An early predict model was developed and validated to differentiate between Mycoplasma Pneumoniae and viral infections.
自 2023 年 10 月以来，中国北方地区儿童中出现了大规模的肺炎支原体肺炎（MPP）疫情。中国卫生部门将这一流行病学现象归因于新冠肺炎（COVID-19）控制措施放松导致的免疫负债。本研究描述了儿童肺炎支原体（MP）流行的流行病学特征，并开发了一种简单的预测模型，以区分儿童中的 MPP 和病毒性肺炎。儿童中 MP 的感染率显著增加，从 2022 年的 8.12%增加到 2023 年的 14.94%，在 10 月至 11 月之间达到高峰，尤其是在学龄儿童中。逻辑回归筛选确定了四个关键指标：年龄、D-二聚体水平、红细胞沉降率和性别。开发的列线图显示出 0.858 的受试者工作特征曲线下面积（ROC-AUC），外部验证证实 ROC-AUC 为 0.794。本研究调查了 COVID-19 大流行期间和之后山东省儿童中 MPP 流行的流行病学特征。开发并验证了一种早期预测模型，以区分肺炎支原体和病毒感染。
