Elevated TyG-BMI index predicts incidence of chronic kidney disease.

Chronic kidney disease (CKD) represents a significant global public health issue, with its incidence and prevalence escalating annually. Metabolic disorders are one of the major etiological factors of CKD. This study investigates the relationship between the emerging metabolic index triglyceride-glucose body mass index (TyG-BMI) and the onset of CKD. Our study enrolled 3,485 healthy participants (1,576 men and 1,909 women), with a follow-up period of 3 years. The primary outcome was the emergence of CKD, defined by an eGFR less than 60 mL/(min × 1.73 m) or the onset of proteinuria. To examine the TyG-BMI and CKD onset relationship, we used univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses, stratified analyses, and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves. After a three-year follow-up, CKD developed in 2% (n = 70) of the participants. Subjects were divided into three equal groups based on their TyG-BMI values, from lowest to highest. After adjusting for potential confounders, the highest TyG-BMI group exhibited a multifactor-adjusted odds ratio (OR) of 4.24 (95% CI 1.30-13.78, P = 0.016) compared to the lowest group. Stratified analyses revealed that the association between TyG-BMI and CKD onset was stronger among females, individuals younger than 60 years, and those with a BMI ≥ 24 kg/m. Furthermore, TYG-BMI was effective in predicting the incidence of CKD. Our findings indicate that TyG-BMI is an independent risk factor for the onset of CKD and that assessment of TyG-BMI may be useful for the early identification of individuals at high risk for CKD.