Olson Erik R, Goethlich Jamie
Department of Natural Resources, Northland College, Ashland, WI 54806, USA.
Department of Forest and Wildlife Ecology, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI 53706, USA.
Animals (Basel). 2024 Aug 15;14(16):2358. doi: 10.3390/ani14162358.
Success in large carnivore conservation often hinges on local residents' tolerance towards those species. Feelings of powerlessness and frustration with wildlife policies can lead to intolerance of the species. In extreme cases, intolerance may manifest in poaching. Thus, changes in policy may influence the tolerance of wildlife. To examine the connections between policy and tolerance, we examined how policy scenarios influenced anticipated changes in tolerance to wolves . We administered a survey in 2015-2016 in the core wolf range within northern Wisconsin, USA. Using hierarchical cluster analysis, we clustered respondents into groups based on their current tolerance of wolves. We evaluated the behavioral intentions of the clusters and examined the influence of policy scenarios on respondents' anticipated changes in tolerance. Finally, using an information-theoretic model selection framework, we assessed the effects of tolerance clusters and demographic factors. The respondents were clustered into three clusters relative to their current tolerance towards wolves: positive, ambivalent, and negative. Each cluster exhibited significantly different behavioral intentions and anticipated changes in tolerance for all scenarios. In all scenarios, respondents who already held positive attitudes towards wolves were significantly less likely to report expected changes in tolerance toward wolves following changes in wolf management. However, respondents who held ambivalent or negative attitudes towards wolves were significantly more likely to report expected changes in tolerance towards wolves following changes in wolf management. Regarding a regulated wolf hunting and trapping season, we observed a Simpson's Paradox, wherein, when examined in aggregate, no clear pattern emerged, but when examined at the cluster level, important and intuitive patterns emerged. Our demographic model results suggest that policy changes resulting in greater state management authority over wolves, especially authority to implement certain forms of legal killing of wolves, could result in significant increases in tolerance for individuals who identify as hunters, have lost livestock to a predator, or are currently ambivalent or negative towards wolves. Our work elucidates the nuanced relationship between tolerance of wildlife and wildlife policy and identifies a potential ecological fallacy.
大型食肉动物保护工作的成功往往取决于当地居民对这些物种的容忍度。对野生动物政策感到无力和沮丧的情绪可能导致对这些物种的不容忍。在极端情况下，这种不容忍可能表现为偷猎行为。因此，政策的变化可能会影响对野生动物的容忍度。为了研究政策与容忍度之间的联系，我们考察了政策情景如何影响对狼的容忍度的预期变化。2015年至2016年，我们在美国威斯康星州北部狼的核心分布区域进行了一项调查。我们使用层次聚类分析，根据受访者目前对狼的容忍度将他们分为不同的组。我们评估了这些组的行为意图，并考察了政策情景对受访者容忍度预期变化的影响。最后，我们使用信息论模型选择框架，评估了容忍度分组和人口统计学因素的影响。根据受访者目前对狼的容忍度，他们被分为三组：积极、矛盾和消极。在所有情景中，每个组都表现出显著不同的行为意图和容忍度预期变化。在所有情景中，那些已经对狼持积极态度的受访者在狼管理方式改变后报告对狼的容忍度预期变化的可能性显著更低。然而，那些对狼持矛盾或消极态度的受访者在狼管理方式改变后报告对狼的容忍度预期变化的可能性显著更高。关于规定的狼狩猎和诱捕季节，我们观察到了辛普森悖论，即总体来看没有明显的模式，但在分组层面进行考察时，出现了重要且直观的模式。我们的人口统计学模型结果表明，政策变化导致州政府对狼有更大的管理权力，特别是实施某些形式合法捕杀狼的权力，可能会使那些自认为是猎人、牲畜被食肉动物捕杀过或者目前对狼持矛盾或消极态度的人对狼的容忍度显著提高。我们的研究阐明了对野生动物的容忍度与野生动物政策之间的微妙关系，并识别出一种潜在的生态谬误。
