Institut de Recherche en Cancérologie de Montpellier (INSERM U1194), Université de Montpellier, CEDEX 5, 34298 Montpellier, France.
National Institute of Hygiene and Epidemiology, Hanoi 11611, Vietnam.
Viruses. 2024 Jul 29;16(8):1217. doi: 10.3390/v16081217.
An HFMD outbreak spread over the city of Hải Phòng from summer 2011 to autumn 2012. This epidemic was chosen because it was the very first HFMD epidemic in North Vietnam, eliminating thus interferences with previous outbreaks. This epidemic displayed three separate waves. A complete dataset was collected for more than 9500 patients during this period, which enabled us to analyze this epidemic at different scales. Access to the healthcare system was crucial during this period, which was possible due to a reorganization of the system in February-March 2012. An analysis at the commune level enabled us to track the epidemic along certain communication routes. The three-waves structure reveals a wide disparity at the district level. We developed a mathematical model showing high accuracy at the adjustment of data for both the total number of cases and for the number of cases per week. As a consequence, the model was able to accurately determine the dates of the beginning and end of each wave and to show that they overlapped. Using mathematical functions associated with this model, it was possible to calculate the probability for a patient to belong to a specific wave.
从 2011 年夏季到 2012 年秋季，一场手足口病疫情在海防市蔓延。选择这场疫情作为研究对象是因为它是越南北部首例手足口病疫情，因此可以排除以往疫情的干扰。这场疫情呈现出三个独立的波次。在这段时间内，我们收集了超过 9500 名患者的完整数据集，从而能够在不同的尺度上分析这场疫情。在这段时间里，获得医疗保健系统的支持至关重要，这得益于 2012 年 2 月至 3 月对系统的重组。在公社层面的分析使我们能够沿着某些传播途径追踪疫情。三个波次的结构显示出区县级别的巨大差异。我们开发了一个数学模型，该模型在调整总病例数和每周病例数的数据方面具有很高的准确性。因此，该模型能够准确确定每个波次的起始和结束日期，并表明它们重叠。使用与该模型相关的数学函数，我们可以计算患者属于特定波次的概率。
