Gubbins Simon
The Pirbright Institute, Ash Road, Pirbright, Surrey GU24 0NF, UK.
R Soc Open Sci. 2024 Oct 30;11(10):241217. doi: 10.1098/rsos.241217. eCollection 2024 Oct.
Epizootic haemorrhagic disease virus (EHDV) is an arbovirus transmitted by biting midges that has recently emerged in Europe. Here, the basic reproduction ratio ( ) was used to quantify the transmission of EHDV and its dependence on temperature for cattle and deer. Using data from the published literature the parameters needed to calculate were estimated with Bayesian methods to incorporate uncertainty in the calculations. The Sobol method of sensitivity analysis was used to determine the parameters having the greatest influence on and, hence, to identify important data gaps. Depending on the strain, the maximum for EHDV varied from 0.7 to 2.5 in cattle and 1.3 to 4.3 in deer. The maximum occurred at temperatures between 22 and 25°C, while the lowest temperature at which exceeded one was between 16 and 20°C. The sensitivity analysis identified the threshold temperature for virus replication, the probability of transmission from host to vector and the vector- to- host ratio as the most important parameters influencing . Furthermore, there are only limited data on EHDV in European deer species and on transmission in wildlife and at the livestock/wildlife interface. These data gaps should be the focus of future research.
流行性出血病病毒（EHDV）是一种由蠓传播的虫媒病毒，最近在欧洲出现。在此，基本繁殖数（ ）被用于量化EHDV在牛和鹿中的传播及其对温度的依赖性。利用已发表文献中的数据，采用贝叶斯方法估计计算 所需的参数，以将不确定性纳入计算中。使用索博尔灵敏度分析方法来确定对 影响最大的参数，从而识别重要的数据缺口。根据毒株不同，EHDV在牛中的最大 范围为0.7至2.5，在鹿中为1.3至4.3。最大 出现在22至25°C之间的温度下，而 超过1的最低温度在16至20°C之间。灵敏度分析确定病毒复制的阈值温度、从宿主到媒介的传播概率以及媒介与宿主的比例是影响 的最重要参数。此外，关于欧洲鹿种中的EHDV以及野生动物中及家畜/野生动物界面处传播的现有数据有限。这些数据缺口应成为未来研究的重点。
