[Changes in the disease burden of male urinary and reproductive system tumors in China from 1990 to 2019: Analysis with a prediction of the future trend].

OBJECTIVE

To analyze the changes in the disease burden of prostate, testis, kidney and bladder cancers among urinary and reproductive system tumors in Chinese men from 1990 to 2019 with a prediction of the future trend.

METHODS

We retrieved the data on the incidence, mortality and disease burden of prostate, testis, kidney and bladder cancers in Chinese men between 1990 and 2019 from the database of Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. Using the Joinpoint regression model, we analyzed the trend of changes in the disease burden, and predicted the prevalence of the tumors with the ARIMA model.

RESULTS

From 1990 to 2019, the standardized incidence and prevalence of prostate, testis, kidney and bladder cancers were on the rise in Chinese men, and those of testis cancer increased most significantly, by 326.79% and 1070.93% respectively. The disease burden of PCa was the highest, with standardized incidence, prevalence and mortality ratios of 17.34/100 000, 117.65/100 000 and 7.79/100 000 respectively in 2019. The standardized mortality and disability-adjusted life years (DALY) of kidney cancer were increased by 103.59% and 103.17% respectively. The highest incidence, mortality and DALY of prostate, kidney and bladder cancers in 2019 were found in 90－94 years old males, the highest prevalence rates of prostate, kidney and bladder cancers in the 70－89-year-olds, and the highest prevalence of testis cancer in the 25－49-year-olds. ARIMA model prediction showed that the standardized incidence rates of prostate, testis, kidney and bladder cancers in Chinese men kept rising from 2020 to 2029.

CONCLUSION

The disease burden of prostate, testis, kidney and bladder cancers in Chinese men is on the rise, and their standardized incidence rates will be even higher by 2029, with a significant increase in the disease burden in young men, which suggests the need of more attention to the prevention and treatment of genitourinary system tumors in young males.