Center for Evidence-Based and Translational Medicine, Zhongnan Hospital of Wuhan University, #169, East Lake Road, Wuchang District, Hubei Province, Wuhan City, China.
Department of Evidence-Based Medicine and Clinical Epidemiology, Second School of Clinical Medicine, Wuhan University, Wuhan, China.
BMC Cancer. 2022 Nov 11;22(1):1164. doi: 10.1186/s12885-022-10244-9.
Prostate, bladder and kidney cancers are common age-related genitourinary cancers. China's population is aging at an increasing rate, so predicting the morbidity and mortality of prostate, bladder, and kidney cancer in China is of great significance to provide epidemiological evidence for forward planning and implementation of national health policies.
Numbers of incidences and deaths by cancer (prostate, bladder and kidney), sex (male and female) and age groups from 1990 to 2019 were extracted from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study. We applied Bayesian age-period-cohort models to predict incidences and deaths to 2030. We also calculated Age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) and mortality rate (ASMR), their trends were quantified by estimated average percentage change (EAPC) and 95% confidence interval (CI).
Predictions suggest that by 2030, there will be 315,310 prostate cancer cases, 192,390 bladder cancer cases and 126,980 kidney cancer cases. The ASIRs will increase to 25.54/100,000 for prostate cancer (EAPC: 2.88, 95% CI, 2.84, 2.93), 7.54/100,000 for bladder cancer (EAPC: 2.58, 95% CI, 2.54, 2.61) and 5.63/100,000 for kidney cancer (EAPC: 4.78, 95% CI, 4.54, 5.02). Number of deaths in 2030 will be 81,540, 61,220, and 41,940, respectively. Different ASMR changes are observed, the ASMR for prostate cancer will drop to 7.69/100,000 (EAPC: -0.29, 95% CI, -0.31, -0.27), the ASMR for bladder cancer will stabilize at 2.49/100,000 (EAPC: 0.00, 95% CI, -0.02, 0.03), the ASMR of kidney cancer will increase to 1.84/100,000 (EAPC: 3.45, 95% CI, 3.22, 3.67). From 1990 to 2030, higher numbers of cases and rates are reported among males and in the 60 plus age group, both ASIR and ASMR of bladder and kidney cancers presents progressively widening differences between both males and females and between the < 60 and the ≥ 60 age groups.
Morbidity and mortality of the three genitourinary cancers are predicted to increase further over the next decade. It highlights the need for timely development and implementation of optimal health policies to curb the epidemic trends.
前列腺癌、膀胱癌和肾癌是常见的与年龄相关的泌尿生殖系统癌症。中国人口老龄化速度加快，因此预测中国前列腺癌、膀胱癌和肾癌的发病率和死亡率对于提供流行病学证据，为国家卫生政策的前瞻性规划和实施具有重要意义。
从全球疾病负担研究（GBD）中提取了 1990 年至 2019 年按癌症（前列腺癌、膀胱癌和肾癌）、性别（男性和女性）和年龄组划分的发病率和死亡率数据。我们应用贝叶斯年龄-时期-队列模型预测 2030 年的发病率和死亡率。我们还计算了年龄标准化发病率（ASIR）和死亡率（ASMR），通过估计平均百分比变化（EAPC）和 95%置信区间（CI）来量化其趋势。
预测表明，到 2030 年，前列腺癌将有 315310 例，膀胱癌 192390 例，肾癌 126980 例。前列腺癌的 ASIR 将上升至 25.54/100000（EAPC：2.88，95%CI，2.84，2.93），膀胱癌的 ASIR 将上升至 7.54/100000（EAPC：2.58，95%CI，2.54，2.61），肾癌的 ASIR 将上升至 5.63/100000（EAPC：4.78，95%CI，4.54，5.02）。2030 年的死亡人数将分别为 81540 人、61220 人和 41940 人。观察到不同的 ASMR 变化，前列腺癌的 ASMR 将下降至 7.69/100000（EAPC：-0.29，95%CI，-0.31，-0.27），膀胱癌的 ASMR 将稳定在 2.49/100000（EAPC：0.00，95%CI，-0.02，0.03），肾癌的 ASMR 将上升至 1.84/100000（EAPC：3.45，95%CI，3.22，3.67）。从 1990 年到 2030 年，男性和 60 岁以上年龄组报告的病例和发病率更高，膀胱癌和肾癌的 ASIR 和 ASMR 之间的性别和年龄组之间的差异逐渐扩大。
未来十年，三种泌尿生殖系统癌症的发病率和死亡率预计将进一步上升。这凸显了及时制定和实施最佳卫生政策以遏制这一流行趋势的必要性。
