El-Masry Omar S
Clinical Laboratory Sciences Department, College of Applied Medical Sciences, Imam Abdulrahman Bin Faisal university, Dammam, Rakkah, 31441, Saudi Arabia.
F1000Res. 2021 Aug 4;10:410. doi: 10.12688/f1000research.52600.2. eCollection 2021.
COVID-19, the disease caused by the newly emerging coronavirus, SARS-COV2, is still a major health burden worldwide as it continues to spread rapidly in many countries after being contained for a while. The aim of the study was to analyze the official current disease estimates in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia to anticipate future risks and needs. Publicly available COVID-19 data published by the Saudi Ministry of Health were analyzed to extract statistical estimates of the disease. These include monthly case fatality rates, death rates/1000, comparison of death figures and regression analysis. The number of confirmed, recovered and deaths surged in the middle of the outbreak (June and July). The case fatality rates reported later in September-November were the highest despite the decline in the number of confirmed cases. The death rates/1000 were higher during the middle of the outbreak, where the highest numbers of deaths were recorded. The number of recovered cases was the highest as well during this time. Regression analysis showed that the number of deaths was related to that of confirmed cases, especially during the peak time. On the other hand, the number of recovered cases was related to that of confirmed cases at the beginning of the outbreak. Statistical estimates of COVID-19 fatalities provide simple figures to understand the disease progression pattern and the health care management success in disease containment. However, the absolute numbers should never be disregarded to reflect on the real situation.
新型冠状病毒SARS-CoV-2引发的疾病COVID-19仍是全球主要的健康负担，因为在经过一段时间的控制后，它仍在许多国家迅速传播。本研究的目的是分析沙特阿拉伯王国目前的官方疾病预估情况，以预测未来的风险和需求。对沙特卫生部公布的公开可用的COVID-19数据进行了分析，以提取该疾病的统计预估数据。这些数据包括月病死率、每千人口死亡率、死亡数字比较以及回归分析。确诊、康复和死亡人数在疫情爆发中期（6月和7月）激增。尽管确诊病例数有所下降，但9月至11月晚些时候报告的病死率却是最高的。每千人口死亡率在疫情爆发中期较高，当时记录的死亡人数最多。在此期间康复病例数也最高。回归分析表明，死亡人数与确诊病例数相关，尤其是在高峰期。另一方面，康复病例数在疫情爆发初期与确诊病例数相关。COVID-19死亡人数的统计预估提供了简单的数据，以了解疾病的进展模式以及疾病防控中医疗管理的成效。然而，绝不能忽视绝对数字，以反映实际情况。
