Haider Najmul, Hasan Mohammad Nayeem, Guitian Javier, Khan Rumi A, McCoy David, Ntoumi Francine, Dar Osman, Ansumana Rashid, Uddin Md Jamal, Zumla Alimuddin, Kock Richard A
The Royal Veterinary College, University of London, Hatfield, UK.
School of Life Sciences, Keele University, Keele, UK.
IJID Reg. 2023 Mar;6:159-166. doi: 10.1016/j.ijregi.2023.01.011. Epub 2023 Jan 26.
The global reported cumulative case-fatality ratios (rCFRs) and excess mortality rates of the 20 countries with the highest coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccination rates, the rest of the world and Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) were compared before and after the commencement of vaccination programmes.
A time series model was used to understand the trend of rCFR over time, and a generalized linear mixed model was used to understand the effect of vaccination on rCFR.
By 31 December 2022, an average of 260.3 doses of COVID-19 vaccine per 100 population had been administered in the top 20 vaccinated countries, compared with 152.1 doses in the rest of the world and 51.2 doses in SSA. The mean rCFR of COVID-19 had decreased by 69.0% in the top 20 vaccinated countries, 26.5% in the rest of the world and 7.6% in SSA. Excess mortality had decreased by 48.7% in the top 20 vaccinated countries, compared with 62.5% in the rest of the world and 60.7% in SSA. In a generalized linear mixed model, the reported number of vaccine doses administered (/100 population) (odds ratio 0.64) was associated with a steeper reduction in COVID-19 rCFR.
Vaccine equity and faster roll-out across the world is critically important in reducing COVID-19 transmission and CFR.
比较20个新冠病毒病2019（COVID-19）疫苗接种率最高的国家、世界其他地区和撒哈拉以南非洲（SSA）在疫苗接种计划开始前后的全球报告累积病死率（rCFRs）和超额死亡率。
使用时间序列模型了解rCFR随时间的变化趋势，并使用广义线性混合模型了解疫苗接种对rCFR的影响。
截至2022年12月31日，20个疫苗接种率最高的国家每100人平均接种了260.3剂COVID-19疫苗，世界其他地区为152.1剂，SSA为51.2剂。20个疫苗接种率最高的国家中COVID-19的平均rCFR下降了69.0%，世界其他地区下降了26.5%，SSA下降了7.6%。20个疫苗接种率最高的国家超额死亡率下降了48.7%，世界其他地区为62.5%，SSA为60.7%。在广义线性混合模型中，报告的疫苗接种剂量数（/100人口）（优势比0.64）与COVID-19 rCFR的更显著下降相关。
全球范围内的疫苗公平性和更快的推广对于减少COVID-19传播和病死率至关重要。
