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基于最大熵模型预测中国树莓(Rubus idaeus)的潜在分布。

Prediction of the potential distribution of a raspberry (Rubus idaeus) in China based on MaxEnt model.

机构信息

State Key Laboratory of Tree Genetics and Breeding, Key Laboratory of Forest Silviculture and Tree Cultivation, National Forestry and Grassland Administration, Research Institute of Forestry, Chinese Academy of Forestry, Beijing, 100091, China.

College of Horticultural Science and Technology, Hebei Normal University of Science and Technology, Qinhuangdao, 066000, Hebei, China.

出版信息

Sci Rep. 2024 Oct 18;14(1):24438. doi: 10.1038/s41598-024-75559-y.

Abstract

Rubus idaeus is a pivotal cultivated species of raspberry known for its attractive color, distinct flavor, and numerous health benefits. It can be used in pharmaceutical, cosmetics, agriculture and food industries not only as fresh but also as a processed product. Nowadays due to climatic changes, genetic diversity of cultivars has decreased dramatically. However, until now, the status of wild R. idaeus resources in China have not been exploited. In this study, we investigated the resources of wild R. idaeus in China to secure its future potential and sustainability. The MaxEnt model was used to predict R. idaeus suitable habitats and spatial distribution patterns for current and future climate scenarios, based on wild domestic geographic distribution data, current and future climate variables, and topographic variables. The results showed that, mean temperature of the coldest quarter (bio11), precipitation of the coldest quarter (bio19), precipitation of the warmest quarter (bio18), and temperature seasonality (bio4) were crucial factors affecting the distribution of R. idaeus. Presently, the suitable habitats were mainly distributed in the north of China including Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia, Gansu, Ningxia, Shaanxi, Shanxi, Hebei, Beijing, Liaoning, Jilin, Heilongjiang. According to our results, in 2050s, the total suitable habitat area of R. idaeus will increase under SSP1-2.6 and then will be decreased with climate change, while in the 2090s, the total suitable habitat area will continue to decrease. From the present to the 2090s, the centroid distribution of R. idaeus in China will shift towards the east and the species will always be present in Inner Mongolia. Our results provide wild resource information and theoretical reference for the protection and rational utilization of R. idaeus.

摘要

覆盆子是一种重要的栽培悬钩子属植物,因其颜色鲜艳、风味独特、具有多种健康益处而备受关注。它不仅可以作为新鲜水果,还可以作为加工产品,广泛应用于制药、化妆品、农业和食品工业。然而,由于气候变化,栽培品种的遗传多样性已大幅减少。但是,到目前为止,中国野生覆盆子资源的状况尚未得到开发。在这项研究中,我们调查了中国野生覆盆子的资源,以确保其未来的潜力和可持续性。本研究基于野生国内地理分布数据、当前和未来气候变量以及地形变量,利用最大熵模型预测了当前和未来气候情景下覆盆子的适宜生境和空间分布格局。结果表明,最冷月均温(bio11)、最冷月降水量(bio19)、最热月降水量(bio18)和温度季节性(bio4)是影响覆盆子分布的关键因素。目前,适宜生境主要分布在中国北部,包括新疆、内蒙古、甘肃、宁夏、陕西、山西、河北、北京、辽宁、吉林、黑龙江。根据我们的结果,在 2050 年代,在 SSP1-2.6 情景下,覆盆子的总适宜生境面积将增加,然后随着气候变化而减少,而在 2090 年代,总适宜生境面积将继续减少。从现在到 2090 年代,中国覆盆子的质心分布将向东转移,该物种将始终存在于内蒙古。我们的研究结果为覆盆子的保护和合理利用提供了野生资源信息和理论参考。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/d94b/11489761/3f7a68bfb789/41598_2024_75559_Fig1_HTML.jpg

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