Lan Jinxin, Ren Yifan, Song Ge, Liu Lu, Li Mingyu, Zhang Renmu, Yin Chunyu, Zhou Hua, Zhang Xiangyuan, Lv Bin, Ma Yaqi
The First Medical Center Chinese PLA General Hospital Beijing China.
School of Medicine Nankai University Tianjin China.
Aging Med (Milton). 2024 Aug 19;7(4):490-498. doi: 10.1002/agm2.12354. eCollection 2024 Aug.
Parkinson disease (PD) is the third leading cause of mortality among middle-aged and older individuals in China. This study aimed to explore the trends and distribution features of PD mortality in China from 2013 to 2021 and make predictions for the next few decades.
Relevant data were obtained from the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention Disease Surveillance Point system. The joinpoint regression model was used to evaluate trends. The R software was used to predict future trends.
Age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) of PD increased from 0.59 per 100,000 individuals to 1.22 per 100,000 individuals from 2013 to 2021, with an average annual percent change (AAPC) of 9.50 (95% CI: 8.24-10.78). The all-age ASMR of PD were higher in male individuals than in female individuals, and ASMR increased with age. The number of deaths and ASMR increased gradually from west to east and from rural to urban areas. Furthermore, ASMR is expected to increase to 2.66 per 100,000 individuals by 2040.
The heightened focus on the ASMR of PD among male individuals, urban areas, eastern China, and individuals aged ≥85 years has become a key determinant in further decreasing mortality, thereby exhibiting novel challenges to effective strategies for disease prevention and control.
帕金森病（PD）是中国中老年人群中第三大死亡原因。本研究旨在探讨2013年至2021年中国PD死亡率的趋势和分布特征，并对未来几十年进行预测。
相关数据来自中国疾病预防控制中心疾病监测点系统。采用Joinpoint回归模型评估趋势。使用R软件预测未来趋势。
2013年至2021年，PD的年龄标准化死亡率（ASMR）从每10万人0.59例增加到每10万人1.22例，平均年变化百分比（AAPC）为9.50（95%CI：8.24-10.78）。PD的全年龄ASMR男性高于女性，且ASMR随年龄增长而增加。死亡人数和ASMR从西部到东部、从农村到城市地区逐渐增加。此外，预计到2040年，ASMR将增至每10万人2.66例。
对男性、城市地区、中国东部以及年龄≥85岁人群中PD的ASMR的高度关注已成为进一步降低死亡率的关键决定因素，从而对有效的疾病预防和控制策略构成新挑战。
