Department of General Surgery, the Second Xiangya Hospital, Central South University, Changsha, Hunan, China.
Clinical Nursing Teaching and Research Section, the Second Xiangya Hospital, Central South University, Changsha, Hunan, China.
J Glob Health. 2024 Jun 14;14:04131. doi: 10.7189/jogh.14.04131.
Thyroid cancer, a leading type of endocrine cancer, accounts for 3-4% of all cancer diagnoses. This study aims to analyse and compare thyroid cancer patterns in China and the Group twenty (G20) countries, and predict these trend for the upcoming two decades.
This observational longitudinal study utilised data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study 2019. We used metrics including incidence, mortality, mortality-incidence ratio (MIR), age-standardised rate (ASR) and average annual percent change (AAPC) to examine thyroid cancer trends. Joinpoint regression analysis was used to identify periods manifesting notable changes. The association between sociodemographic index (SDI) and AAPC were investigated. The autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model was used to predict thyroid cancer trends from 2020 to 2040.
From 1990 to 2019, thyroid cancer incidence cases in China increased by 289.6%, with a higher AAPC of age-standardised incidence rate (ASIR) in men. Contrastingly, the G20 demonstrated a smaller increase, particularly among women over 50. Despite the overall age-standardised mortality rate (ASMR) was higher in the G20, the increase in mortality was less pronounced than in China. Age-standardised incidence rate increased across all age groups and genders, with a notable rise among men aged 15-49. ASMR decreased in specific age groups and genders, especially among women. Conversely, the ASMR significantly increased in group aged over 70. The MIR exhibited a declining trend, but this decrease was less noticeable in men and the group aged over 70. Joinpoint analysis pinpointed significant shifts in overall ASIR and ASMR, with the most pronounced increase in ASIR during 2003-2011 in China and 2003-2010 in the G20. Predictions suggested a continual ASIR uptrend, especially in the 50-69 age group, coupled with a predicted ASMR downturn among the elderly by 2040. Moreover, the proportion of thyroid cancer deaths attributable to high body mass index (BMI) escalated, with significant increase in Saudi Arabia and a rise to 7.4% in China in 2019.
Thyroid cancer cases in incidence and mortality are escalating in both China and the G20. The increasing trend may be attributed to factors beyond overdiagnosis, including environmental and genetic factors. These findings emphasise the necessity for augmenting prevention, control, and treatment strategies. They also highlight the significance of international collaboration in addressing the global challenge posed by thyroid cancer.
甲状腺癌是内分泌系统中最常见的癌症类型，约占所有癌症诊断的 3-4%。本研究旨在分析和比较中国与二十国集团（G20）国家的甲状腺癌发病模式，并预测未来二十年的趋势。
本观察性纵向研究利用了 2019 年全球疾病负担（GBD）研究的数据。我们使用发病率、死亡率、死亡率-发病率比（MIR）、年龄标准化率（ASR）和平均年变化百分比（AAPC）等指标来研究甲状腺癌的趋势。使用 Joinpoint 回归分析来确定表现出显著变化的时期。研究了社会人口指数（SDI）与 AAPC 之间的关联。使用自回归综合移动平均（ARIMA）模型预测 2020 年至 2040 年的甲状腺癌趋势。
1990 年至 2019 年期间，中国甲状腺癌发病率增长了 289.6%，男性的年龄标准化发病率（ASIR）增长更快。相比之下，G20 的增长率较小，特别是在 50 岁以上的女性中。尽管 G20 的总体年龄标准化死亡率（ASMR）更高，但死亡率的增长幅度不如中国显著。所有年龄组和性别组的年龄标准化发病率均有所增加，尤其是 15-49 岁的男性。在特定年龄组和性别中，ASMR 有所下降，尤其是女性。相反，70 岁以上人群的 ASMR 显著增加。MIR 呈下降趋势，但男性和 70 岁以上人群的下降幅度较小。Joinpoint 分析指出，ASIR 和 ASMR 整体呈显著变化趋势，中国 2003-2011 年和 G20 2003-2010 年 ASIR 增长最为显著。预测表明，ASIR 将持续上升，特别是在 50-69 岁年龄组，到 2040 年，老年人群的 ASMR 将呈下降趋势。此外，甲状腺癌死亡归因于高体重指数（BMI）的比例不断上升，沙特阿拉伯的这一比例显著增加，中国 2019 年这一比例上升至 7.4%。
中国和 G20 国家的甲状腺癌发病率和死亡率都在上升。这种上升趋势可能归因于过度诊断以外的因素，包括环境和遗传因素。这些发现强调了加强预防、控制和治疗策略的必要性。它们还突出了国际合作在应对全球甲状腺癌挑战方面的重要性。
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