Li Xiu-Fen, Wu Shuang, Zhao Fang, Zhu Hai-Xia, Gong Li-Juan, Jiang Li-Xia, Wang Ping, Zhao Hui-Ying
1 Heilongjiang Province Institute of Meteorological Sciences, Harbin 150030, China.
2 Innovation and Opening Laboratory of Eco-Meteorology in Northeast China, China Meteorological Administration, Harbin 150030, China.
Ying Yong Sheng Tai Xue Bao. 2024 Jun;35(6):1615-1624. doi: 10.13287/j.1001-9332.202406.024.
A comprehensive understanding of the evolution of soybean climate potential productivity and its response to climate change in Heilongjiang Province can offer reference and basis for further tapping soybean production potential and realizing stable and high yield of soybean in the frigid region. Based on meteorological data from 80 meteorological stations in Heilongjiang Province from 1961 to 2020, we estimated photosynthesis, light temperature, and climate potential productivity of soybean by the stepwise correction method, examined the spatiotemporal variations by spatial interpolation and statistical analysis methods, and analyzed the impact of changes in climate factors such as radiation, temperature, and precipitation on climate potential productivity. The results showed that during the study period, the average values of photosynthesis potential productivity (), light-temperature potential productivity (), and climate potential productivity () of soybean in Heilongjiang Province were 7533, 6444, and 3515 kg·hm, respectively. The temporal changes of those variables showed significant increasing trends, with increases of 125.9, 182.9, and 116.1 kg·hm·(10 a), respectively. For the spatial distribution, , , were characterized by high values in plains and lower in the mountains, and gradually decreased from southwest to northeast. Compared with that during 1961-1990, the high value zone of in period 1991-2020 expanded by 7.1%, and the low value zone decreased by 5.1%. showed a significant response to climate change. The potential temperature growth period was extended due to climate warming. The continuous increase in thermal resources, combined with relatively sufficient precipitation, effectively alleviated the negative impact of the decline in light resources on soybean production in Heilongjiang Province. The projected "warm and humid" climate would comprehensively boost climate potential productivity of soybean in Heilongjiang Province.
全面了解黑龙江省大豆气候生产潜力演变及其对气候变化的响应，可为进一步挖掘大豆生产潜力、实现寒地大豆稳产高产提供参考和依据。基于黑龙江省80个气象站1961—2020年的气象数据，采用逐步订正法估算大豆光合、光温及气候生产潜力，运用空间插值和统计分析方法研究其时空变化特征，并分析辐射、温度、降水等气候因子变化对气候生产潜力的影响。结果表明，研究时段内黑龙江省大豆光合生产潜力（）、光温生产潜力（）及气候生产潜力（）的平均值分别为7533、6444、3515 kg·hm，三者时间变化均呈显著增加趋势，增速分别为125.9、182.9、116.1 kg·hm·(10 a)。空间分布上，、、均表现为平原高、山区低，且由西南向东北递减。与1961—1990年相比，1991—2020年的高值区扩大了7.1%，低值区缩小了5.1%。对气候变化响应显著，气候变暖使大豆潜在温度生长期延长，热量资源持续增加，且降水相对充足，有效缓解了光资源下降对黑龙江省大豆生产的负面影响。预估的“暖湿”气候将全面提升黑龙江省大豆气候生产潜力。
