Rzanny Michael, Mäder Patrick, Wittich Hans Christian, Boho David, Wäldchen Jana
Department Biogeochemical Integration, Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry, Jena, Germany.
Data-Intensive Systems and Visualisation, Technische Universität Ilmenau, Ilmenau, Germany.
NPJ Biodivers. 2024 Mar 6;3(1):5. doi: 10.1038/s44185-024-00037-7.
Opportunistic plant records provide a rapidly growing source of spatiotemporal plant observation data. Here, we used such data to explore the question whether they can be used to detect changes in species phenologies. Examining 19 herbaceous and one woody plant species in two consecutive years across Europe, we observed significant shifts in their flowering phenology, being more pronounced for spring-flowering species (6-17 days) compared to summer-flowering species (1-6 days). Moreover, we show that these data are suitable to model large-scale relationships such as "Hopkins' bioclimatic law" which quantifies the phenological delay with increasing elevation, latitude, and longitude. Here, we observe spatial shifts, ranging from -5 to 50 days per 1000 m elevation to latitudinal shifts ranging from -1 to 4 days per degree northwards, and longitudinal shifts ranging from -1 to 1 day per degree eastwards, depending on the species. Our findings show that the increasing volume of purely opportunistic plant observation data already provides reliable phenological information, and therewith can be used to support global, high-resolution phenology monitoring in the face of ongoing climate change.
机会性植物记录提供了一个快速增长的时空植物观测数据源。在此，我们利用这些数据来探讨它们是否可用于检测物种物候变化的问题。在连续两年对欧洲的19种草本植物和1种木本植物进行研究时，我们观察到它们的开花物候有显著变化，与夏季开花物种（1 - 6天）相比，春季开花物种的变化更为明显（6 - 17天）。此外，我们表明这些数据适合用于模拟大规模关系，如“霍普金斯生物气候定律”，该定律量化了随着海拔、纬度和经度增加的物候延迟。在此，我们观察到空间变化，根据物种不同，每1000米海拔的变化范围为 - 5至50天，向北每度纬度的变化范围为 - 1至4天，向东每度经度的变化范围为 - 1至1天。我们的研究结果表明，单纯的机会性植物观测数据量的增加已经提供了可靠的物候信息，因此可用于支持在持续气候变化背景下的全球高分辨率物候监测。
