School of Economics, Beijing Institute of Technology, Beijing, China; GUST Center for Sustainable Development (CSD), Gulf University for Science and Technology, Hawally, Kuwait; Department of Land Economy, University of Cambridge, United Kingdom.
Department of Economics, Shahid Bahonar University of Kerman, Iran.
J Environ Manage. 2024 Nov;370:122359. doi: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2024.122359. Epub 2024 Sep 6.
The inverted U-shaped relationship between economic growth and environmental degradation is known as environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) and has been tested in many empirical studies since more than 3 decades. Technological change is one of the tools that can be used to examine the existence of EKC in CGE models. The objective is to extract EKC for G7 countries using a multi-regional CGE model and investigate the effects of some key factors affecting EKC using historical data for the period of 1861-2021. First, we have considered the effects of energy efficiency, on CO emissions, on carbon intensity and on economic growth. Then, EKC was extracted based on the obtained results. In addition, the effects of factors such as carbon tax, revenue recycling schemes and various types of substitution elasticities are evaluated on EKC. Our results show that, with a 3% improvement in productivity, by 2050, GDP will increase by nearly 12% and carbon emissions will decrease by 4.4%. The combination of such two effects has led to an inverted U-shaped relationship between economic growth and carbon emissions. Among the elasticity of substitutions, the elasticity of substitution of capital and energy, as well as the substitution elasticity of energy inputs has the greatest effect on EKC. The slope of EKC becomes negative if a carbon tax is imposed. The EKC moves downwards if carbon tax income is transferred to the production tax-cut in renewable sectors. The results suggest that carbon tax and its allocation to renewable sectors will improve environmental effects.
经济增长与环境退化之间的倒 U 型关系被称为环境库兹涅茨曲线（EKC），自 30 多年前以来，已有许多实证研究对此进行了检验。技术变革是可用于检验 CGE 模型中 EKC 存在的工具之一。目的是使用多区域 CGE 模型为 G7 国家提取 EKC，并利用 1861-2021 年期间的历史数据研究影响 EKC 的一些关键因素的影响。首先，我们考虑了能源效率、CO 排放、碳强度和经济增长对 EKC 的影响。然后，根据获得的结果提取 EKC。此外，还评估了碳税、收益回收计划和各种类型的替代弹性等因素对 EKC 的影响。结果表明，到 2050 年，生产力提高 3%，GDP 将增长近 12%，碳排放量将减少 4.4%。这两种效应的结合导致了经济增长与碳排放之间的倒 U 型关系。在替代弹性中，资本和能源的替代弹性以及能源投入的替代弹性对 EKC 的影响最大。如果征收碳税，EKC 的斜率将变为负值。如果将碳税收入转移到可再生部门的生产减税中，EKC 将向下移动。结果表明，碳税及其在可再生部门的分配将改善环境影响。
