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埃博拉病毒病的一种适形数学模型及其稳定性分析。

A conformable mathematical model of Ebola Virus Disease and its stability analysis.

作者信息

Abbas Nadeem, Zanib Syeda Alishwa, Ramzan Sehrish, Nazir Aqsa, Shatanawi Wasfi

机构信息

Department of Mathematics and Sciences, College of Humanities and Sciences, Prince Sultan University, Riyadh, 11586, Saudi Arabia.

Department of Mathematics, Riphah International University, Main Satyana Road, Faisalabad 44000, Pakistan.

出版信息

Heliyon. 2024 Aug 9;10(16):e35818. doi: 10.1016/j.heliyon.2024.e35818. eCollection 2024 Aug 30.

DOI:10.1016/j.heliyon.2024.e35818
PMID:39247366
原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC11379567/
Abstract

Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) is a viral hemorrhagic fever that affects humans and other primates. It is characterized by rapid virus spread in a short period of time. The disease has the potential to spread to many different regions of the world. In this paper, we have developed a modified mathematical model of the Ebola virus, adding the quarantine population as a control strategy. The quarantine population and parameters represent the rate at which individuals enter the quarantine compartment, which is vital in controlling the virus spread within society. The conformable derivatives have been applied to the modified model to observe the behavior of individuals for fractional derivative values between 0.7 and 1. For a modified model, the threshold parameter ( ) has been determined using the Next-Generation Matrix (NGM) method. We have checked local and global stability at a disease-free equilibrium point using Routh-Herwitz (RH) criteria and Castillo-Chavez, respectively. Numerical results obtained through the Fourth-Order Runge Kutta Method (RK4) demonstrate, a decrease in the virus transmission rate after following the implementation of the quarantine strategy.

摘要

埃博拉病毒病（EVD）是一种影响人类和其他灵长类动物的病毒性出血热。其特点是病毒在短时间内迅速传播。该疾病有可能传播到世界许多不同地区。在本文中，我们开发了一种改进的埃博拉病毒数学模型，将隔离人群作为一种控制策略纳入其中。隔离人群和参数代表个体进入隔离区的速率，这对于控制病毒在社会中的传播至关重要。已将一致导数应用于改进模型，以观察分数阶导数值在0.7到1之间时个体的行为。对于改进模型，已使用下一代矩阵（NGM）方法确定阈值参数（ ）。我们分别使用劳斯 - 赫尔维茨（RH）准则和卡斯蒂略 - 查韦斯准则，在无病平衡点处检查了局部和全局稳定性。通过四阶龙格 - 库塔方法（RK4）获得的数值结果表明，实施隔离策略后病毒传播率有所下降。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/5259/11379567/acb330f11b93/gr007.jpg
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https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/5259/11379567/fe7d5374a0e5/gr003.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/5259/11379567/bc540e2de508/gr004.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/5259/11379567/fa0a227d1c05/gr005.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/5259/11379567/ebd1c8e90a5f/gr006.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/5259/11379567/acb330f11b93/gr007.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/5259/11379567/c2b5c2ea71ce/gr001.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/5259/11379567/3cc4a7b7c0b2/gr002.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/5259/11379567/fe7d5374a0e5/gr003.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/5259/11379567/bc540e2de508/gr004.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/5259/11379567/fa0a227d1c05/gr005.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/5259/11379567/ebd1c8e90a5f/gr006.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/5259/11379567/acb330f11b93/gr007.jpg

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