Meltzer Martin I, Atkins Charisma Y, Santibanez Scott, Knust Barbara, Petersen Brett W, Ervin Elizabeth D, Nichol Stuart T, Damon Inger K, Washington Michael L
MMWR Suppl. 2014 Sep 26;63(3):1-14.
The first cases of the current West African epidemic of Ebola virus disease (hereafter referred to as Ebola) were reported on March 22, 2014, with a report of 49 cases in Guinea. By August 31, 2014, a total of 3,685 probable, confirmed, and suspected cases in West Africa had been reported. To aid in planning for additional disease-control efforts, CDC constructed a modeling tool called EbolaResponse to provide estimates of the potential number of future cases. If trends continue without scale-up of effective interventions, by September 30, 2014, Sierra Leone and Liberia will have a total of approximately 8,000 Ebola cases. A potential underreporting correction factor of 2.5 also was calculated. Using this correction factor, the model estimates that approximately 21,000 total cases will have occurred in Liberia and Sierra Leone by September 30, 2014. Reported cases in Liberia are doubling every 15-20 days, and those in Sierra Leone are doubling every 30-40 days. The EbolaResponse modeling tool also was used to estimate how control and prevention interventions can slow and eventually stop the epidemic. In a hypothetical scenario, the epidemic begins to decrease and eventually end if approximately 70% of persons with Ebola are in medical care facilities or Ebola treatment units (ETUs) or, when these settings are at capacity, in a non-ETU setting such that there is a reduced risk for disease transmission (including safe burial when needed). In another hypothetical scenario, every 30-day delay in increasing the percentage of patients in ETUs to 70% was associated with an approximate tripling in the number of daily cases that occur at the peak of the epidemic (however, the epidemic still eventually ends). Officials have developed a plan to rapidly increase ETU capacities and also are developing innovative methods that can be quickly scaled up to isolate patients in non-ETU settings in a way that can help disrupt Ebola transmission in communities. The U.S. government and international organizations recently announced commitments to support these measures. As these measures are rapidly implemented and sustained, the higher projections presented in this report become very unlikely.
2014年3月22日报告了当前西非埃博拉病毒病疫情（以下简称埃博拉疫情）的首批病例，几内亚报告了49例。截至2014年8月31日，西非共报告了3685例疑似、确诊和可能感染病例。为协助规划更多疾病控制措施，美国疾病控制与预防中心（CDC）构建了一个名为埃博拉应对（EbolaResponse）的建模工具，以估计未来可能出现的病例数。如果趋势持续且不扩大有效干预措施，到2014年9月30日，塞拉利昂和利比里亚的埃博拉病例总数将约为8000例。还计算了一个潜在的漏报校正系数2.5。使用这个校正系数，该模型估计到2014年9月30日，利比里亚和塞拉利昂的病例总数将约为21000例。利比里亚报告的病例每15 - 20天就会翻倍，塞拉利昂的病例每30 - 40天翻倍。埃博拉应对建模工具还用于估计控制和预防干预措施如何减缓并最终阻止疫情。在一个假设情景中，如果约70%的埃博拉患者在医疗机构或埃博拉治疗单元（ETU），或者当这些场所满负荷时，在非ETU场所，从而降低疾病传播风险（包括必要时的安全埋葬），疫情开始下降并最终结束。在另一个假设情景中，将ETU中患者比例提高到70%每延迟30天，在疫情高峰期每日新增病例数就会增加约两倍（然而，疫情最终仍会结束）。官员们已制定计划迅速增加ETU容量，并且正在开发创新方法，这些方法可迅速扩大规模，以便在非ETU场所隔离患者，从而有助于阻断社区内的埃博拉传播。美国政府和国际组织最近宣布承诺支持这些措施。随着这些措施迅速实施并持续下去，本报告中提出的更高预测结果极不可能出现。
