School of Sociology, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China.
School of Sociology, Nankai University, Tianjin, China.
Disaster Med Public Health Prep. 2024 Sep 9;18:e106. doi: 10.1017/dmp.2024.93.
Disaster experiences have long-term effects on disaster preparedness. This study examined the long-term (10-y) effect of disaster severity of the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake on survivors' disaster preparedness and the moderating effects of household vulnerability.
The data were collected in January 2018 covering 30 counties in Wenchuan earthquake-stricken areas. The dependent variable was survivors' disaster preparedness (including overall, material, knowledge and awareness, and action preparedness) in 2018. Disaster severity included survivors' housing damage and county death rate caused by the earthquake in 2008. Household vulnerability is a set of conditions that negatively affects the ability of people to prepare for and withstand disaster, proxied by households' per-capita income and the highest years of schooling of household members. We performed multivariable linear regression models to answer the research questions.
A higher county death rate was associated with better overall preparedness (β = 0.043; < 0.05) and knowledge and awareness preparedness (β = 0.018; < 0.05), but housing damage was not significantly associated with disaster preparedness. The positive association of county death rate with overall preparedness (β = -0.065; < 0.05) becomes weaker when a household has a higher per-capita income. Also, with the household per-capita income increasing, the associations of county death rate with material preparedness (β = -0.037; < 0.05) and action preparedness (β = -0.034; < 0.01) become weaker.
Disaster severity has positive and long-term effects on survivors' disaster preparedness. Also, the positive and long-term effects are affected by household vulnerability. Specifically, the positive and long-term effects of disaster severity on disaster preparedness are more substantial when a household is more vulnerable.
灾难经历对灾难准备有长期影响。本研究考察了 2008 年汶川地震灾难严重程度对幸存者灾难准备的 10 年长期影响，以及家庭脆弱性的调节作用。
数据于 2018 年 1 月收集，涵盖汶川地震灾区的 30 个县。因变量是 2018 年幸存者的灾难准备情况（包括总体、物资、知识和意识以及行动准备）。灾难严重程度包括幸存者在 2008 年地震中的住房损坏和全县死亡率。家庭脆弱性是一组对人们准备和承受灾害的能力产生负面影响的条件，由家庭人均收入和家庭成员的最高受教育年限来代理。我们进行了多变量线性回归模型来回答研究问题。
更高的全县死亡率与更好的总体准备（β=0.043；<0.05）和知识及意识准备（β=0.018；<0.05）相关，但住房损坏与灾难准备没有显著相关。当家庭人均收入较高时，全县死亡率与总体准备的正相关（β=-0.065；<0.05）变得较弱。此外，随着家庭人均收入的增加，全县死亡率与物资准备（β=-0.037；<0.05）和行动准备（β=-0.034；<0.01）的相关性也变得较弱。
灾难严重程度对幸存者的灾难准备有积极和长期的影响。此外，这种积极和长期的影响受到家庭脆弱性的影响。具体来说，当家庭更脆弱时，灾难严重程度对灾难准备的积极和长期影响更为显著。
