Centre for Economic Demography and Department of Economic History, Lund University, Lund, Sweden.
Demography. 2024 Oct 1;61(5):1351-1375. doi: 10.1215/00703370-11550717.
Many studies demonstrate an intergenerational transmission of divorce with a focus primarily on more recent decades; however, the extent to which this relationship is deeply rooted or has changed over time remains unclear. Explanations, including sociodemographic and interpersonal factors, have been offered as links between parental divorce and the stability of offspring's marriage. We use individual-level longitudinal data from the Scanian Economic-Demographic Database to estimate the intergenerational transmission of divorce among first marriages in Sweden over the period 1920-2015. Our investigation focuses on the correlation between parental divorce and offspring's divorce during the transition from a low- to a high-divorce regime. Findings reveal surprising stability in the transmission despite fundamental societal change over the years. Notably, the risk of divorce is highest when either the wife or both spouses have experienced parental divorce. Moreover, the transmission of divorce across time appears to be stronger and more stable for women than for men. These results suggest the intergenerational transmission of divorce is part of the divorce transition and highlight the role of women's independence in this intricate but not yet fully understood process.
许多研究表明离婚存在代际传递现象，主要集中在最近几十年；然而，这种关系在多大程度上是根深蒂固的，或者随着时间的推移是否发生了变化，目前还不清楚。人们提出了一些解释，包括社会人口学和人际关系因素，这些因素被认为是父母离婚与子女婚姻稳定性之间的联系。我们使用来自斯堪的纳维亚经济人口数据库的个人层面的纵向数据，来估计瑞典 1920-2015 年期间首次婚姻中的离婚代际传递现象。我们的调查重点是在从低离婚率向高离婚率转变期间，父母离婚与子女离婚之间的相关性。研究结果表明，尽管多年来社会发生了根本性变化，但这种传递现象惊人地稳定。值得注意的是，当妻子或双方配偶都经历过父母离婚时，离婚的风险最高。此外，离婚在时间上的传递似乎对女性比男性更强烈和更稳定。这些结果表明，离婚的代际传递是离婚转变的一部分，并强调了女性独立性在这个复杂但尚未完全理解的过程中的作用。
