心血管疾病的全球负担：2025年至2050年的预测

Global burden of cardiovascular diseases: projections from 2025 to 2050.

作者信息

Chong Bryan, Jayabaskaran Jayanth, Jauhari Silingga Metta, Chan Siew Pang, Goh Rachel, Kueh Martin Tze Wah, Li Henry, Chin Yip Han, Kong Gwyneth, Anand Vickram Vijay, Wang Jiong-Wei, Muthiah Mark, Jain Vardhmaan, Mehta Anurag, Lim Shir Lynn, Foo Roger, Figtree Gemma A, Nicholls Stephen J, Mamas Mamas A, Januzzi James L, Chew Nicholas W S, Richards A Mark, Chan Mark Y

机构信息

Yong Loo Lin School of Medicines, National University Singapore, 21 Lower Kent Ridge Rd, Singapore 119077, Singapore.

Department of Biostatistics, Cardiovascular Research Institute, National University Heart Centre (Singapore), NUHS, Singapore, Singapore.

出版信息

Eur J Prev Cardiol. 2024 Sep 13. doi: 10.1093/eurjpc/zwae281.

DOI:10.1093/eurjpc/zwae281

PMID:39270739

Abstract

AIMS

The prediction of future trends in cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality and their risk factors can assist policy-makers in healthcare planning. This study aims to project geospatial trends in CVDs and their underlying risk factors from 2025 to 2050.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Using historical data on mortality and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2019 study, encompassing the period of 1990 to 2019, Poisson regression was performed to model mortality and DALYs associated with CVD and its associated risk factors from 2025 to 2050. Subgroup analysis was based on GBD super-regions. Between 2025 and 2050, a 90.0% increase in cardiovascular prevalence, 73.4% increase in crude mortality, and 54.7% increase in crude DALYs are projected, with an expected 35.6 million cardiovascular deaths in 2050 (from 20.5 million in 2025). However, age-standardized cardiovascular prevalence will be relatively constant (-3.6%), with decreasing age-standardized mortality (-30.5%) and age-standardized DALYs (-29.6%). In 2050, ischaemic heart disease will remain the leading cause of cardiovascular deaths (20 million deaths) while high systolic blood pressure will be the main cardiovascular risk factor driving mortality (18.9 million deaths). Central Europe, Eastern Europe, and Central Asia super-region is set to incur the highest age-standardized cardiovascular mortality rate in 2050 (305 deaths per 100 000 population).

CONCLUSION

In the coming decades, the relatively constant age-standardized prevalence of global CVD suggests that the net effect of summative preventative efforts will likely continue to be unchanged. The fall in age-standardized cardiovascular mortality reflects the improvement in medical care following diagnosis. However, future healthcare systems can expect a rapid rise in crude cardiovascular mortality, driven by the ageing global populace. The continued rise in CVD burden will largely be attributed to atherosclerotic diseases.

REGISTRATION

Not applicable.

摘要

目的

预测心血管疾病（CVD）死亡率及其风险因素的未来趋势有助于政策制定者进行医疗保健规划。本研究旨在预测2025年至2050年心血管疾病及其潜在风险因素的地理空间趋势。

方法与结果

利用全球疾病负担（GBD）2019研究中1990年至2019年期间的死亡率和伤残调整生命年（DALY）历史数据，进行泊松回归以模拟2025年至2050年与心血管疾病及其相关风险因素相关的死亡率和DALY。亚组分析基于GBD超级区域。2025年至2050年期间，预计心血管疾病患病率将增加90.0%，粗死亡率将增加73.4%，粗DALY将增加54.7%，2050年预计心血管死亡人数将达到3560万（2025年为2050万）。然而，年龄标准化心血管疾病患病率将相对稳定（-3.6%），年龄标准化死亡率（-30.5%）和年龄标准化DALY（-29.6%）将下降。到2050年，缺血性心脏病仍将是心血管疾病死亡的主要原因（2000万例死亡），而高收缩压将是导致死亡的主要心血管风险因素（1890万例死亡）。中欧、东欧和中亚超级区域预计在2050年将出现最高的年龄标准化心血管死亡率（每10万人口305例死亡）。