Zhang Guangze, Brink Michel, Aus der Fünten Karen, Tröß Tobias, Willeit Peter, Meyer Tim, Lemmink Koen, Hecksteden Anne
Institute of Sports and Preventive Medicine, Saarland University, Saarbrücken, Germany.
Center for Human Movement Sciences, University of Groningen, University Medical Center Groningen (UMCG), Groningen, The Netherlands.
Sports Med. 2025 Jan;55(1):193-201. doi: 10.1007/s40279-024-02103-3. Epub 2024 Sep 14.
Injury risk in professional football (soccer) is increased in the weeks following return-to-play (RTP). However, the time course of injury risk after RTP (the hazard curve) as well as its influencing factors are largely unknown. This knowledge gap, which is arguably due to the volatility of instantaneous risk when calculated for short time intervals, impedes on informed RTP decision making and post-RTP player management.
This study aimed to characterize the hazard curve for non-contact time-loss injuries after RTP in male professional football and to investigate the influence of the severity of the index injury and playing position.
Media-based injury records from the first German football league were collected over four seasons as previously published. Time-to-event analysis was employed for non-contact time-loss injury after RTP. The Kaplan-Meier survival function was used to calculate the cumulative hazard function, from which the continuous hazard function was retrieved by derivation.
There were 1623 observed and 1520 censored events from 646 players analyzed. The overall shape of the hazard curve was compatible with an exponential decline of injury risk, from an approximately two-fold level shortly after RTP towards baseline, with a half-time of about 4 weeks. Interestingly, the peak of the hazard curve was slightly delayed for moderate and more clearly for severe index injuries.
The time course of injury risk after RTP (the hazard curve) can be characterized based on the Kaplan-Meier model. The shape of the hazard curve and its influencing factors are of practical as well as methodological relevance and warrant further investigation.
在重返赛场（RTP）后的数周内，职业足球运动员的受伤风险会增加。然而，RTP后受伤风险的时间进程（风险曲线）及其影响因素在很大程度上尚不清楚。这种知识空白可以说是由于在短时间间隔内计算瞬时风险的波动性所致，这阻碍了明智的RTP决策和RTP后球员管理。
本研究旨在描述男性职业足球运动员RTP后非接触性失能损伤的风险曲线，并研究初始损伤严重程度和比赛位置的影响。
如先前发表的那样，收集了德国足球甲级联赛四个赛季基于媒体的伤病记录。采用事件发生时间分析方法研究RTP后的非接触性失能损伤。使用Kaplan-Meier生存函数计算累积风险函数，并通过求导得出连续风险函数。
对646名球员进行分析，观察到1623起事件，1520起事件被删失。风险曲线的总体形状与受伤风险呈指数下降相符，从RTP后不久的约两倍水平降至基线水平，半衰期约为4周。有趣的是，中度初始损伤的风险曲线峰值略有延迟，重度初始损伤则更明显。
RTP后受伤风险的时间进程（风险曲线）可以基于Kaplan-Meier模型进行描述。风险曲线的形状及其影响因素具有实际和方法学上的相关性，值得进一步研究。
