Using spatial distribution modeling of commercial species to inform management of small-scale fisheries in a Mediterranean marine protected area.

Marine protected areas (MPAs) make an essential contribution to the spatial management of critical areas, the conservation of coastal species exploited by human activities, and the sustainable use of marine resources. Within MPAs, fishing closure areas are among the most used small-scale fishery management tools, even though their effectiveness largely remains untested or controversial. To reduce the impact of small-scale fisheries on marine resources, a seasonal fishing closure area (SFCA) was established beginning in 2022 in autumn-winter season inside the Capo Caccia-Isola Piana MPA (Sardinia, northwestern Mediterranean Sea). Here, we assessed a posteriori whether the areas of higher habitat suitability for eight species/taxa of relevant ecological value and economic interest to small-scale fisheries were included in the established SFCA, adequately meeting the ecological objectives of the MPA. Thus, landing data (from 2019 to 2023) were used as occurrence records to develop MaxEnt distribution models for the eight target species/taxa. The model outputs allow us to draw important insights about the spatial adequacy of the SFCA established within the MPA aimed to protect the most exploited marine resources. Furthermore, the modeling exercises were useful for understanding the local processes influencing species' habitat selection and to identify essential areas for the target species that could remain unrevealed in larger-scale investigations.