Analysis of prognostic risk factors and development of a predictive model for fetuses with right aortic arch with mirror-image branching: a prognostic evaluation method based on ultrasound parameter features.

BACKGROUND

Prenatal ultrasound plays a crucial role in the diagnosis and classification of right aortic arch (AO) with mirror-image branching (RAA-MB). The recent research in this area has primarily focused on qualitative diagnosis, neglecting the quantitative analysis of ultrasound factors that impact RAA-MB outcomes. This study used echocardiography to measure prenatal ultrasound parameters for vascular ring and trachea in fetuses with RAA-MB, employing a nomogram model to evaluate factors influencing their prognosis, thereby providing a comprehensive characterization of potential outcomes.

METHODS

A retrospective case-control study was conducted from March 2019 to March 2023. A systematic gathering of prenatal echocardiograms and clinical data was completed for a cohort comprising 92 cases of fetal RAA-MB at the Ultrasound Medicine Center of Gansu Provincial Maternity and Child Care Hospital. Participant recruitment was executed through random selection from among those receiving outpatient medical care. Within the cohort, 42 cases were categorized as fetuses with isolated RAA-MB, while the remaining 50 cases were characterized as fetuses with RAA-MB and associated anomalies. Measurements were taken of the angle between the right AO and the ductus arteriosus (DA) (AO-DA), the distance between the AO and DA, the diameter of AO and DA, and the distance growth rate (DGR) of the AO-DA distance. Additionally, measurements were taken of the tracheal anterior-posterior diameter, tracheal left-right diameter, and tracheal circumference in the three-vessel tracheal view. In the AO view, measurements were taken of the tracheal cross-sectional area (TA) and the vessel ring cross-sectional area (VRA). The relationship between these parameters and the prognosis of fetuses with RAA-MB was assessed using logistic regression analysis. A receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was constructed to evaluate the diagnostic performance of the predictive model based on these factors.

RESULTS

The multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed that the independent predictive factors for the prognosis of fetuses with RAA-MB were the AO-DA distance [odds ratio (OR) =0.012], TA (OR =0.401), and VRA (OR =1.103) (all P values <0.001). The area under the ROC curve was 0.891 [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.789-0.914; P<0.001], indicating a high accuracy of the model's predictions.

CONCLUSIONS

The AO-DA distance, TA, and VRA are factors that influence the prognosis of fetuses with RAA-MB. The column chart model constructed based on these parameters can effectively provide a reference for predicting the risk of adverse outcomes in fetuses with RAA-MB.