Fan Mengxing, Qi Jinping, Zheng Xiangdong, Shang Hongtai, Kan Jiayun
Mechatronics T&R Institute, Lanzhou Jiaotong University, Lanzhou 730070, China.
Engineering Technology Center for Information of Logistics & Transport Equipment, Lanzhou 730070, China.
Heliyon. 2024 Aug 22;10(17):e36675. doi: 10.1016/j.heliyon.2024.e36675. eCollection 2024 Sep 15.
Existing studies have not analyzed travelers' travel modal shift behavior after bus fare adjustment for special urban topography. In order to fill this gap and explore the strategies that can effectively encourage the shift of valley city travelers to rail transit after the adjustment of bus fare, the price adjustment perception and topographic space perception are introduced to expand the theory of planned behavior (TPB). On this basis, an integrated model combining structural equation model (SEM) and Mixed Logit model (MLM) is established to analyze the factors of travelers' modal shift behavior of in the valley city after bus fare adjustment, and elastic analysis is carried out. Taking Lanzhou as an example, questionnaire data and traffic data were collected for example analysis. The results show that fare adjustment perception (FAP) and topographic space perception (TSP) have the same significant impact on travel modal shift intention (TMSI) and behavior (TMSB) as subjective norms (SN), shift behavior attitude (SBA) and perceived behavior control (PBC), and the travel characteristics and psychological perception sensitivity of travelers in the valley city are heterogeneous. After the adjustment of bus fares in valley city, the shift to rail transit is the most. When the subjective norms, fare adjustment perception and topographic space perception of travelers in the valley city increase by 50 %. The sharing rate of rail transit is increased by 10.284 %. The effective way to increase the sharing rate of rail transit is to increase the combined factors of subjective norms, topographic space perception and fare adjustment perception. Compared with the Multinomial Logit model and the Logit model combined with structural equation model, the goodness of fit and prediction accuracy of the proposed integrated model are improved.
现有研究尚未针对特殊城市地形分析公交票价调整后旅客的出行方式转移行为。为填补这一空白并探索能有效鼓励谷地城市旅客在公交票价调整后转向轨道交通的策略，引入价格调整感知和地形空间感知来拓展计划行为理论（TPB）。在此基础上，建立了结构方程模型（SEM）和混合逻辑模型（MLM）相结合的综合模型，以分析谷地城市公交票价调整后旅客出行方式转移行为的影响因素，并进行弹性分析。以兰州为例，收集问卷数据和交通数据进行实例分析。结果表明，票价调整感知（FAP）和地形空间感知（TSP）对出行方式转移意向（TMSI）和行为（TMSB）的影响与主观规范（SN）、转移行为态度（SBA）和感知行为控制（PBC）相同，且谷地城市旅客的出行特征和心理感知敏感性存在异质性。谷地城市公交票价调整后，向轨道交通转移的最多。当谷地城市旅客的主观规范、票价调整感知和地形空间感知提高5０%时，轨道交通分担率提高10.284%。提高轨道交通分担率的有效途径是增加主观规范、地形空间感知和票价调整感知的综合因素。与多项逻辑模型和结合结构方程模型的逻辑模型相比，所提出的综合模型的拟合优度和预测精度有所提高。
