Brief Report: Group-Based Trajectory Modeling to Determine Long-Term HIV Viral Load Trends Among Children With HIV in Kenya.

BACKGROUND

Identifying determinants of longitudinal HIV viral load (VL) trajectories using group-based trajectory modeling (GBTM) can inform clinical strategies and mechanisms of nonadherence among children.

METHODS

Children under 12 months old who were newly diagnosed with HIV were enrolled in the Optimizing Pediatric HIV therapy cohort (NCT00428116) from 2007 to 2010. Children initiated antiretroviral therapy at enrollment, and VL was assessed every 3 months for 24 months post-antiretroviral therapy and every 6 months thereafter up to 8 years old. VL trajectory groups were defined using GBTM. Fisher's exact and Kruskal-Wallis tests were used to determine the correlates of each trajectory group compared with the sustained-low VL group.

RESULTS

Five VL trajectory groups were identified among 89 children with 522 VL visits from 6 to 24 months: sustained-low (63% of children), sustained-very-high (16%), sustained-high (9%), low-to-high (7%), and high-with-periods-of-low (6%). Children in the sustained-high group were more frequently on a first-line protease inhibitor (PI)-based regimen (63% vs 38%; P = 0.03) and had younger caregivers (median: 22 vs 28 years; P = 0.02). Among 54 children with 560 VL visits followed from 48 to 96 months, 5 trajectory groups were identified: sustained-low (74%), mid-range (4%), periods-of-low (7%), high-to-low (7%), and sustained-high (7%). Those in the high-to-low group had younger caregivers (21 vs 29 years; P = 0.01).

CONCLUSIONS

GBTM identified unique VL patterns among children with unsuppressed VL. Caregiver and regimen-related characteristics were associated with patterns of nonsuppression. Younger caregivers may benefit from tailored counseling to help them support child antiretroviral therapy adherence. Palatable regimens are necessary for viral suppression among children with HIV.