Kumar Pradeep, Das Chinmoyee, Biswas Subrata, Priyam Nidhi, Kharayat Lalit Singh, Sahu Damodar, Rai Sanjay K, Godbole Sheela V, Arumugam Elangovan, Lakshmi P V M, Dutta Shanta, Devi H Sanayaima, Pandey Arvind, Reddy Dandu Chandra Sekhar, Mehendale Sanjay, Rajan Shobini
National AIDS Control Organization, Ministry of Health and Family Welfare, New Delhi, India.
Indian Council of Medical Research, National Institute of Medical Statistics, New Delhi, India.
PLOS Glob Public Health. 2024 Sep 18;4(9):e0003702. doi: 10.1371/journal.pgph.0003702. eCollection 2024.
One of the five high-level goals under Phase V of the National AIDS and STD Control Programme (NACP) of the Government of India is the elimination of vertical transmission of HIV. In this paper, we estimate the potential impact of maintaining and enhancing the anti-retroviral treatment under the NACP in terms of averting new infections and vertical transmission rates vis-à-vis no intervention scenario. We used India's HIV Estimates 2022 models to create treatment coverage scenarios of no interventions, status quo, business as usual, on-track and fast-track scenarios from 2023 to 2030. Our analysis indicates that fast-tracking scale-up of treatment services would avert almost 41000 child infections from 2023 to 2030 leading to a vertical transmission rate of around 7.70% in 2030 vis-a-vis no interventions scenario. Higher and sustained ART coverage would not only take the country closer to the elimination goals but would also prevent thousands of vertical transmissions, thus bringing a lot of benefits to HIV-positive pregnant women and their families. Supported by efforts for the prevention of new infections in the general population, India is on track for the attainment of elimination of vertical transmission of HIV by 2030.
印度政府国家艾滋病和性传播疾病控制计划（NACP）第五阶段的五个高级目标之一是消除艾滋病毒的垂直传播。在本文中，我们估计了在NACP下维持和加强抗逆转录病毒治疗相对于无干预情景在避免新感染和垂直传播率方面的潜在影响。我们使用印度2022年艾滋病毒估计模型创建了2023年至2030年无干预、现状、照常营业、步入正轨和快速推进情景的治疗覆盖情况。我们的分析表明，快速扩大治疗服务规模将在2023年至2030年期间避免近41000例儿童感染，相对于无干预情景，2030年的垂直传播率约为7.70%。更高且持续的抗逆转录病毒治疗覆盖率不仅会使该国更接近消除目标，还将预防数千例垂直传播，从而给艾滋病毒呈阳性的孕妇及其家庭带来诸多益处。在预防普通人群新感染的努力支持下，印度有望在2030年实现消除艾滋病毒垂直传播的目标。
