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追踪超额死亡人数(TRACKED)——一个用于监测英国与新冠疫情相关的超额死亡人数的交互式在线工具。

Tracking Excess Deaths (TRACKED) - an interactive online tool to monitor excess deaths associated with the COVID-19 pandemic in the United Kingdom.

作者信息

Poon Michael T C, Brennan Paul M, Jin Kai, Figueroa Jonine D, Sudlow Cathie L M

机构信息

Usher Institute, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, EH16 4UX, UK.

Brain Tumour Centre of Excellence, Cancer Research UK Edinburgh Centre, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, EH4 2XR, UK.

出版信息

Wellcome Open Res. 2020 Nov 20;5:168. doi: 10.12688/wellcomeopenres.16058.2. eCollection 2020.

Abstract

We aimed to describe trends of excess mortality in the United Kingdom (UK) stratified by nation and cause of death, and to develop an online tool for reporting the most up to date data on excess mortality Population statistics agencies in the UK including the Office for National Statistics (ONS), National Records of Scotland (NRS), and Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency (NISRA) publish weekly mortality data. We used mortality data up to 22 May in the ONS and the NISRA and 24 May in the NRS. The main outcome measures were crude mortality for non-COVID deaths (where there is no mention of COVID-19 on the death certificate) calculated, and excess mortality defined as difference between observed mortality and expected average of mortality from previous 5 years. There were 56,961 excess deaths, of which 8,986 were non-COVID excess deaths. England had the highest number of excess deaths per 100,000 population (85) and Northern Ireland the lowest (34). Non-COVID mortality increased from 23 March and returned to the 5-year average on 10 May. In Scotland, where underlying cause mortality data besides COVID-related deaths was available, the percentage excess over the 8-week period when COVID-related mortality peaked was: dementia 49%, other causes 21%, circulatory diseases 10%, and cancer 5%. We developed an online tool (TRACKing Excess Deaths - TRACKED) to allow dynamic exploration and visualisation of the latest mortality trends. Continuous monitoring of excess mortality trends and further integration of age- and gender-stratified and underlying cause of death data beyond COVID-19 will allow dynamic assessment of the impacts of indirect and direct mortality of the COVID-19 pandemic.

摘要

我们旨在描述英国按地区和死因分层的超额死亡率趋势,并开发一个在线工具来报告超额死亡率的最新数据。英国的人口统计机构,包括国家统计局(ONS)、苏格兰国家记录局(NRS)和北爱尔兰统计与研究局(NISRA),每周都会公布死亡率数据。我们使用了ONS和NISRA截至5月22日以及NRS截至5月24日的死亡率数据。主要结局指标是计算非新冠死亡(死亡证明上未提及新冠病毒)的粗死亡率,超额死亡率定义为观察到的死亡率与前5年预期平均死亡率之间的差值。共有56,961例超额死亡,其中8,986例是非新冠超额死亡。英格兰每10万人中的超额死亡人数最多(85人),北爱尔兰最少(34人)。非新冠死亡率自3月23日起上升,并于5月10日恢复到5年平均水平。在苏格兰,除了新冠相关死亡外还可获取潜在死因死亡率数据,在新冠相关死亡率达到峰值的8周期间,超额百分比为:痴呆症49%,其他原因21%,循环系统疾病10%,癌症5%。我们开发了一个在线工具(追踪超额死亡 - TRACKED),以实现对最新死亡率趋势的动态探索和可视化。持续监测超额死亡率趋势,并进一步整合新冠疫情以外的按年龄和性别分层以及死因的相关数据,将有助于动态评估新冠疫情对间接和直接死亡率的影响。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/0059/11411345/554f34572644/wellcomeopenres-5-18112-g0000.jpg

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