Buehler Center for Health Policy & Economics, Feinberg School of Medicine, Northwestern University, 9-933 Rubloff Building, 420 E Superior St, Chicago, IL, 60611, United States, 1 312-503-4559.
Criminology, Law and Public Policy, Northeastern University, New York, NY, United States.
JMIR Public Health Surveill. 2024 Sep 20;10:e62952. doi: 10.2196/62952.
Assault weapon and large-capacity magazine bans are potential tools for policy makers to prevent public mass shootings. However, the efficacy of these bans is a continual source of debate. In an earlier study, we estimated the impact of the Federal Assault Weapons Ban (FAWB) on the number of public mass shooting events in the United States. This study provides an updated assessment with 3 additional years of firearm surveillance data to characterize the longer-term effects.
This study aims to estimate the impact of the FAWB on trends in public mass shootings from 1966 to 2022.
We used linear regression to estimate the impact of the FAWB on the 4-year simple moving average of annual public mass shootings, defined by events with 4 or more deaths in 24 hours, not including the perpetrator. The study period spans 1966 to 2022. The model includes indicator variables for both the FAWB period (1995-2004) and the period after its removal (2005-2022). These indicators were interacted with a linear time trend. Estimates were controlled for the national homicide rate. After estimation, the model provided counterfactual estimates of public mass shootings if the FAWB was never imposed and if the FAWB remained in place.
The overall upward trajectory in the number of public mass shootings substantially fell while the FAWB was in place. These trends are specific to events in which the perpetrator used an assault weapon or large-capacity magazine. Point estimates suggest the FAWB prevented up to 5 public mass shootings while the ban was active. A continuation of the FAWB and large-capacity magazine ban would have prevented up to 38 public mass shootings, but the CIs become wider as time moves further away from the period of the FAWB.
The FAWB, which included a ban on large-capacity magazines, was associated with fewer public mass shooting events, fatalities, and nonfatal gun injuries. Gun control legislation is an important public health tool in the prevention of public mass shootings.
攻击性武器和大容量弹匣禁令是政策制定者用来防止公共大规模枪击事件的潜在工具。然而，这些禁令的效果一直是争论的焦点。在之前的一项研究中，我们估计了联邦攻击性武器禁令（FAWB）对美国公共大规模枪击事件数量的影响。本研究提供了一项更新的评估，使用了 3 年额外的枪支监测数据来描述更长期的影响。
本研究旨在估计 FAWB 对 1966 年至 2022 年公共大规模枪击事件趋势的影响。
我们使用线性回归估计 FAWB 对每年公共大规模枪击事件 4 年简单移动平均值的影响，定义为 24 小时内有 4 人或更多人死亡的事件，不包括凶手。研究期间为 1966 年至 2022 年。该模型包括 FAWB 期间（1995-2004 年）和禁令解除后期间（2005-2022 年）的指标变量。这些指标与线性时间趋势相互作用。估计值受全国杀人率的控制。估计后，如果 FAWB 从未实施，如果 FAWB 仍然存在，该模型提供了公共大规模枪击事件的反事实估计。
FAWB 实施期间，公共大规模枪击事件数量的总体上升轨迹大幅下降。这些趋势仅针对使用攻击性武器或大容量弹匣的犯罪者的事件。点估计表明，FAWB 在禁令生效期间阻止了多达 5 起公共大规模枪击事件。如果 FAWB 和大容量弹匣禁令继续下去，将阻止多达 38 起公共大规模枪击事件，但随着时间的推移，远离 FAWB 时期，置信区间变得更宽。
包括大容量弹匣禁令在内的 FAWB 与公共大规模枪击事件、死亡人数和非致命性枪支伤害的发生次数较少有关。枪支管制立法是预防公共大规模枪击事件的重要公共卫生工具。
