Louis Klarevas is with the Teachers College, Columbia University, New York, NY. Andrew Conner is with the Frank H. Netter, MD, School of Medicine, Quinnipiac University, North Haven, CT. David Hemenway is with the Harvard T. H. Chan School of Public Health, Harvard University, Boston, MA.
Am J Public Health. 2019 Dec;109(12):1754-1761. doi: 10.2105/AJPH.2019.305311. Epub 2019 Oct 17.
To evaluate the effect of large-capacity magazine (LCM) bans on the frequency and lethality of high-fatality mass shootings in the United States. We analyzed state panel data of high-fatality mass shootings from 1990 to 2017. We first assessed the relationship between LCM bans overall, and then federal and state bans separately, on (1) the occurrence of high-fatality mass shootings (logit regression) and (2) the deaths resulting from such incidents (negative binomial analysis). We controlled for 10 independent variables, used state fixed effects with a continuous variable for year, and accounted for clustering. Between 1990 and 2017, there were 69 high-fatality mass shootings. Attacks involving LCMs resulted in a 62% higher mean average death toll. The incidence of high-fatality mass shootings in non-LCM ban states was more than double the rate in LCM ban states; the annual number of deaths was more than 3 times higher. In multivariate analyses, states without an LCM ban experienced significantly more high-fatality mass shootings and a higher death rate from such incidents. LCM bans appear to reduce both the incidence of, and number of people killed in, high-fatality mass shootings.
评估大容量弹匣（LCM）禁令对美国高致命性大规模枪击事件的频率和致命性的影响。我们分析了 1990 年至 2017 年高致命性大规模枪击事件的州面板数据。我们首先评估了 LCM 禁令整体，以及联邦和州禁令分别对（1）高致命性大规模枪击事件的发生（逻辑回归）和（2）此类事件造成的死亡人数（负二项式分析）的关系。我们控制了 10 个独立变量，使用连续变量的州固定效应，并考虑了聚类。在 1990 年至 2017 年期间，发生了 69 起高致命性大规模枪击事件。涉及 LCM 的袭击导致平均死亡人数增加了 62%。非 LCM 禁令州的高致命性大规模枪击事件发生率是 LCM 禁令州的两倍多；每年的死亡人数高出 3 倍多。在多变量分析中，没有 LCM 禁令的州经历了更多的高致命性大规模枪击事件，此类事件的死亡率也更高。LCM 禁令似乎减少了高致命性大规模枪击事件的发生频率和死亡人数。
