International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria.
Department of Environmental Geography, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Amsterdam, The Netherlands.
Nat Food. 2024 Sep;5(9):742-753. doi: 10.1038/s43016-024-01039-1. Epub 2024 Sep 23.
Carbon sequestration on agricultural land, albeit long-time neglected, offers substantial mitigation potential. Here we project, using an economic land-use model, that these options offer cumulative mitigation potentials comparable to afforestation by 2050 at 160 USD tCO equivalent (tCOe), with most of it located in the Global South. Carbon sequestration on agricultural land could provide producers around the world with additional revenues of up to 375 billion USD at 160 USD tCOe and allow achievement of net-zero emissions in the agriculture, forestry and other land-use sectors by 2050 already at economic costs of around 80-120 USD tCOe. This would, in turn, decrease economy-wide mitigation costs and increase gross domestic product (+0.6%) by the mid-century in 1.5 °C no-overshoot climate stabilization scenarios compared with mitigation scenarios that do not consider these options. Unlocking these potentials requires the deployment of highly efficient institutions and monitoring systems over the next 5 years across the whole world, including sub-Saharan Africa, where the largest mitigation potential exists.
农业土地碳封存虽然长期以来被忽视,但具有巨大的减排潜力。在这里,我们使用经济土地利用模型进行预测,到 2050 年,这些选择的累积减排潜力可与造林相媲美,达到 160 美元/吨二氧化碳当量(tCOe),其中大部分位于南半球。农业土地碳封存可以为全球各地的生产者带来高达 3750 亿美元的额外收入,到 2050 年,在农业、林业和其他土地利用部门实现净零排放,经济成本约为 80-120 美元/吨二氧化碳当量。这反过来又会降低整个经济部门的减排成本,并在 1.5°C 无超调气候稳定情景下,在本世纪中叶使国内生产总值(+0.6%)相对于不考虑这些选择的减排情景有所增加。要释放这些潜力,需要在未来 5 年内,在全世界范围内部署高效的机构和监测系统,包括减排潜力最大的撒哈拉以南非洲地区。