Department of Non-Communicable Disease Prevention, Nanjing Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Nanjing 210009, China.
Department of Non-Communicable Chronic Disease Control and Prevention Institute, Jiangsu Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention (Jiangsu Provincial Academy of Preventive Medicine), Nanjing 210009, China.
Curr Oncol. 2024 Sep 14;31(9):5516-5527. doi: 10.3390/curroncol31090408.
(1) Background: Over the past few decades, Jiangsu Province, China, has witnessed a remarkable surge in the incidence of prostate cancer (PCa), accompanied by notable demographic shifts; (2) Methods: PCa data for Jiangsu Province from 2009 to 2019 were obtained from the Jiangsu Cancer Registry. We calculated crude and age-specific incidence rates (ASIRs), average age at onset, and age-specific composition ratios. Standardization was performed based on the Segi's world population. Birth cohorts (1929-2019) were analyzed to assess PCa incidence by birth year. Trend analysis was conducted using the Joinpoint Regression Model, and average annual percent changes (AAPCs) with corresponding 95% confidence interval (CI) were computed. A linear regression model was used to analyze the relationship between the average age at diagnosis and calendar years; (3) Results: The ASIRs of PCa in Jiangsu Province increased significantly, with an AAPC of 11.25% (95%CI: 10.09%, 12.42%) from 2009 to 2019. This increase was observed across all age groups, particularly among those aged 0-59 years. Birth cohort analysis revealed a rising trend with earlier birth years showing higher incidence, notably in the 1959 cohort. In rural areas, the age-standardized average age at onset of PCa decreased from 75.45 years in 2009 to 73.39 years in 2019, and the peak age group shifted from 75-79 years in 2009 to 70-74 years in 2019; (4) Conclusions: The rising incidence of PCa in Jiangsu Province, along with an increased proportion of cases in younger age groups, highlights the need for targeted interventions.
（1）背景：过去几十年间，中国江苏省的前列腺癌（PCa）发病率显著上升，同时人口结构也发生了显著变化；（2）方法：从江苏省癌症登记处获取了 2009 年至 2019 年江苏省的 PCa 数据。我们计算了粗发病率和年龄别发病率（ASIR）、平均发病年龄以及年龄别构成比。采用 Segi 世界人口进行标准化。分析了出生队列（1929-2019 年），以评估按出生年份的 PCa 发病率。使用 Joinpoint 回归模型进行趋势分析，并计算平均年度百分比变化（AAPC）及其 95%置信区间（CI）。使用线性回归模型分析平均诊断年龄与日历年份之间的关系；（3）结果：江苏省的 PCa ASIR 显著增加，2009 年至 2019 年的 AAPC 为 11.25%（95%CI：10.09%，12.42%）。所有年龄组均观察到这种增加，尤其是 0-59 岁年龄组。出生队列分析显示呈上升趋势，且出生年份越早，发病率越高，尤其是 1959 年出生的队列。在农村地区，PCa 的年龄标准化平均发病年龄从 2009 年的 75.45 岁下降到 2019 年的 73.39 岁，发病高峰年龄组从 2009 年的 75-79 岁转移到 2019 年的 70-74 岁；（4）结论：江苏省 PCa 发病率的上升以及年轻年龄段病例比例的增加，凸显出需要进行有针对性的干预。
