Mississippi State University, Starkville, USA.
Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, USA.
Sci Rep. 2024 Sep 28;14(1):22489. doi: 10.1038/s41598-024-73287-x.
Current human population growth along Earth's coasts is on a collision path with anticipated consequences of increasing natural and anthropogenic induced coastal hazards. Using recently-available ambient, dasymetric data, we developed methods to estimate annual continental and global coastal populations from (2000-2018) measured horizontally from the shoreline inward. We found: (1) large concentrations of population in relatively small bands and regions along the coast (~ 2 billion within 50 km and ~ 1 billion within 10 km); (2) higher growth rates of coastal population than inland population (an addition of 463 million within 50 km and 233 million within 10 km); (3) strong influence of distance from the coast to predict population distribution; and (4) that macro population patterns and growth could be expressed and modeled as a power function at continental and global levels. Findings point to emerging macro population patterns along the coast as contributing to increasing anthropogenic effects on Earth systems and increasing human risks associated with sea-level rise, land subsidence, extreme weather, and public health. Reliable data tracking of the magnitude, spatial distribution and change of human populations in the coastal regions is essential for comprehensive coastal monitoring.
目前，地球沿海地区的人口增长正与预期的增加自然和人为诱发的沿海灾害的后果发生冲突。利用最近获得的环境、面域化数据，我们开发了从海岸线向内测量（2000-2018 年）的方法，以估算年度大陆和全球沿海人口。我们发现：（1）在沿海地区相对较小的地带和区域内存在大量人口集中（50 公里范围内约有 20 亿人，10 公里范围内约有 10 亿人）；（2）沿海地区人口增长率高于内陆地区（50 公里范围内增加了 4.63 亿人，10 公里范围内增加了 2.33 亿人）；（3）距离海岸的远近对人口分布有很强的预测影响；（4）在大陆和全球层面上，人口的宏观模式和增长可以用幂函数来表示和建模。这些发现表明，沿海地区新兴的宏观人口模式正在对地球系统产生越来越大的人为影响，并增加了与海平面上升、土地沉降、极端天气和公共卫生相关的人类风险。可靠地跟踪沿海地区人口数量、空间分布和变化的大数据对于全面的沿海监测至关重要。
