Global Center for Evidence Synthesis, Chandigarh, India.
South Asia Infant Feeding Research Network, Division of Evidence Synthesis, Global Consortium of Public Health and Research, Datta Meghe Institute of Higher Education, Wardha, India.
Oral Oncol. 2024 Dec;159:107063. doi: 10.1016/j.oraloncology.2024.107063. Epub 2024 Oct 1.
Oral cancer is the sixth most prevalent cancer globally, posing a significant health concern, especially in India, where it accounts for one-third of the global cases. Despite high incidence and mortality rates, comprehensive national and regional data on risk factors and trends are scarce.
This study analyzed data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 report, focusing on the age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR), mortality rate (ASMR), disability-adjusted life years (ASDR), and prevalence rate (ASPR) of oral cancer in India from 1990 to 2021. Joinpoint regression analysis was used to assess trends, and ARIMA models were applied to forecast future trends from 2022 to 2031.
From 1990 to 2021, India experienced a moderate increase in oral cancer mortality, with ASMR rising from 5.32 to 5.92, reflecting an annual percentage change (APC) of 11.18 %. ASDR increased from 152.94 to 163.61 (APC of 6.98 %), and ASPR showed a marked rise from 15.71 to 25.46 (APC of 62.06 %). The burden varied significantly across states. Gender disparities were observed, with males consistently exhibiting higher incidence and mortality rates. ARIMA forecasts projected an upward trend in oral cancer metrics from 2022 to 2031, with ASIR expected to reach 10.15 per 100,000 and ASPR 29.38 per 100,000 by 2031.
The study reveals a persistent and growing burden of oral cancer in India, highlighting the influence of lifestyle and socioeconomic factors. Targeted strategies to mitigate risk behaviors, improve early detection, and address disparities are urgently needed to reduce the disease's impact.
口腔癌是全球第六大常见癌症，对健康构成重大威胁，在印度尤为如此，印度的口腔癌病例占全球的三分之一。尽管口腔癌的发病率和死亡率都很高，但关于其危险因素和趋势的全面的国家和地区数据却很匮乏。
本研究分析了 2021 年全球疾病负担（GBD）报告的数据，重点分析了 1990 年至 2021 年印度口腔癌的年龄标准化发病率（ASIR）、死亡率（ASMR）、伤残调整生命年（DALY）和患病率（ASPR）。采用 Joinpoint 回归分析评估趋势，采用 ARIMA 模型预测 2022 年至 2031 年的未来趋势。
从 1990 年至 2021 年，印度口腔癌死亡率呈中度上升趋势，ASMR 从 5.32 上升至 5.92，反映出年变化百分比（APC）为 11.18%。DALY 从 152.94 上升至 163.61（APC 为 6.98%），ASPR 则从 15.71 上升至 25.46（APC 为 62.06%）。各州之间的负担差异显著。存在性别差异，男性的发病率和死亡率一直高于女性。ARIMA 预测显示，2022 年至 2031 年，口腔癌各项指标呈上升趋势，预计 2031 年 ASIR 将达到 10.15/100000，ASPR 将达到 29.38/100000。
研究表明，印度口腔癌的负担持续且不断增加，突出了生活方式和社会经济因素的影响。迫切需要采取有针对性的策略来减轻风险行为，提高早期检测率，并解决差异问题，以降低该疾病的影响。
