Kumar Vijay, Zahiruddin Quazi Syed, Jena Diptismita, Ballal Suhas, Kumar Sanjay, Bhat Mahakshit, Sharma Shilpa, Kumar M Ravi, Rustagi Sarvesh, Gaidhane Abhay M, Jain Lara, Sah Sanjit, Shabil Muhammed
Global Center for Evidence Synthesis, Chandigarh, India.
South Asia Infant Feeding Research Network, Division of Evidence Synthesis, Global Consortium of Public Health and Research, Datta Meghe Institute of Higher Education, Wardha, India.
Cancer Epidemiol. 2025 Feb;94:102719. doi: 10.1016/j.canep.2024.102719. Epub 2024 Dec 4.
The study aims to explore the burden and trends of prostate cancer (PC) in India at the state level from 1990 to 2021, using data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 study.
The health metrics including age-standardised incidence rates (ASIR), prevalence rates (ASPR), disability-adjusted life years (ASDR), and mortality rates (ASMR) per 100,000 for PC were analysed across Indian states and union territories. Join point regression analysis was employed to identify significant changes in these metrics over time. Projection of ASIR were done using auto-regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model.
The age-wise distribution of PC showed increased in ASIR, ASPR, ASDR, ASMR among older age, majorly in the 75-79 years age group. From 1990-2021, the average annual percentage change (AAPC) in ASIR, ASPR, ASMR and ASDR increased by 157 %, 278 %, 76 % and 58 % respectively. Projections indicate a further rise in ASIR to 9.15 per 100,000 by 2031. The join point analysis showed the highest annual percentage change (APC) between 1992 and 1995 period in all health metrics. Despite Gujarat state showing the highest total percentage change in all health metrics when considering regional variations, Delhi and Kerala still remain the highest overall.
The study emphasises the growing burden of PC in India, highlighting the need for improved diagnostic practices, localized screening guidelines, and targeted public health interventions.
本研究旨在利用全球疾病负担（GBD）2021研究的数据，探讨1990年至2021年印度各邦前列腺癌（PC）的负担及趋势。
分析了印度各邦和联邦属地前列腺癌的健康指标，包括年龄标准化发病率（ASIR）、患病率（ASPR）、伤残调整生命年（ASDR）和每10万人死亡率（ASMR）。采用连接点回归分析来确定这些指标随时间的显著变化。使用自回归积分移动平均（ARIMA）模型对ASIR进行预测。
前列腺癌的年龄分布显示，老年人群（主要是75 - 79岁年龄组）的ASIR、ASPR、ASDR、ASMR有所增加。1990年至2021年，ASIR、ASPR、ASMR和ASDR的年均百分比变化（AAPC）分别增加了157%、278%、76%和58%。预测表明，到2031年，ASIR将进一步升至每10万人9.15例。连接点分析显示，所有健康指标在1992年至1995年期间的年度百分比变化（APC）最高。尽管考虑到地区差异，古吉拉特邦在所有健康指标中的总百分比变化最高，但德里和喀拉拉邦仍然总体最高。
该研究强调了印度前列腺癌负担的不断增加，突出了改进诊断方法、制定本地化筛查指南和有针对性的公共卫生干预措施的必要性。
