Understanding current trends and incidence projections of prostate cancer in India: A comprehensive analysis of national and regional data from the global burden of disease study (1990 -2021).

BACKGROUND

The study aims to explore the burden and trends of prostate cancer (PC) in India at the state level from 1990 to 2021, using data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 study.

METHODS

The health metrics including age-standardised incidence rates (ASIR), prevalence rates (ASPR), disability-adjusted life years (ASDR), and mortality rates (ASMR) per 100,000 for PC were analysed across Indian states and union territories. Join point regression analysis was employed to identify significant changes in these metrics over time. Projection of ASIR were done using auto-regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model.

RESULTS

The age-wise distribution of PC showed increased in ASIR, ASPR, ASDR, ASMR among older age, majorly in the 75-79 years age group. From 1990-2021, the average annual percentage change (AAPC) in ASIR, ASPR, ASMR and ASDR increased by 157 %, 278 %, 76 % and 58 % respectively. Projections indicate a further rise in ASIR to 9.15 per 100,000 by 2031. The join point analysis showed the highest annual percentage change (APC) between 1992 and 1995 period in all health metrics. Despite Gujarat state showing the highest total percentage change in all health metrics when considering regional variations, Delhi and Kerala still remain the highest overall.

CONCLUSION

The study emphasises the growing burden of PC in India, highlighting the need for improved diagnostic practices, localized screening guidelines, and targeted public health interventions.