Trend analysis of hematological tumors in adolescents and young adults from 1990 to 2019 and predictive trends from 2020 to 2044: A Global Burden of Disease study.

INTRODUCTION

Cancer constitutes the primary disease spectrum contributing to the Global Burden of Disease (GBD). Adolescents and young adults (AYA) aged 15-39 have received relatively less attention regarding tumor prevention, diagnosis, and treatment compared to older adults and children. This study aimed to analyze the changes in the disease burden of hematological malignancies among the global AYA over the past three decades based on the GBD database.

METHODS

The changes in the disease burden of hematological malignancies were analyzed among the AYA over the past three decades based on the information from the GBD database. The future trends were predicted using the Nordpred package in R.

RESULTS

Our results showed that leukemia ranked first as the leading tumor burden among AYA in 2019, but the incidence rate and mortality rate of leukemia decreased year by year, with a projected age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) of 1.65/100,000 for females and 2.40/100,000 for males by the year 2044. In addition, the incidence of non-Hodgkin's lymphoma has been gradually increasing in recent years, with an ASIR of 1.73/100,000 from 2020 to 2024. The results may serve as a basis for developing strategies to reduce the burden of hematological malignancies in the AYA population in different regions.