Fu Yu, Du Ya-Zhe, Zhang Yun-Wei, Song Fei, Gao Su-Jun, Su Long
Department of Hematology, The First Hospital of Jilin University, Changchun, China.
Key Laboratory of Hematology Precision Medicine of Jilin Province, The First Hospital of Jilin University, Changchun, China.
PLoS One. 2025 Jul 21;20(7):e0328526. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0328526. eCollection 2025.
Hematological malignancies (HMs) pose a severe threat to human health and contribute substantially to the disease burden in mainland China and Taiwan. Therefore, understanding their burden is crucial for informed decision-making and the effective allocation of healthcare resources.
This study utilized the latest data from the Global Burden of Disease 2021 study to describe the epidemiological indices of HMs in mainland China and Taiwan from 1990 to 2021. The future disease burden was projected for the next decade using the Bayesian age-period cohort (BAPC) model.
Between 1990 and 2021, mainland China experienced an increase in the prevalence and incidence of leukemia and lymphoma, while the mortality and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for these diseases declined. Conversely, Taiwan witnessed an overall increase in the prevalence, incidence, mortality, and DALYs of leukemia over the same period. Additionally, multiple myeloma (MM), myelodysplastic/myeloproliferative neoplasms, and other hematopoietic neoplasms have shown significant increases in prevalence, incidence, mortality, and DALYs in China. While the disease burden of myeloid leukemia decreased in mainland China, that of lymphoid neoplasms (including leukemia, lymphoma, and MM) increased, which was not observed in Taiwan. Predictions from the BAPC model suggest that the incidence of several lymphoid neoplasms and MM is expected to increase in mainland China and Taiwan.
Taiwan continues to face greater challenges in managing HMs compared to mainland China. MM imposes a significant burden on the Chinese population. The findings of this study provide valuable epidemiological insights for optimizing the allocation of medical resources.
血液系统恶性肿瘤（HMs）对人类健康构成严重威胁，在中国大陆和台湾地区的疾病负担中占比颇大。因此，了解其负担情况对于做出明智决策和有效分配医疗资源至关重要。
本研究利用《2021年全球疾病负担研究》的最新数据，描述1990年至2021年中国大陆和台湾地区HMs的流行病学指标。使用贝叶斯年龄-时期队列（BAPC）模型对未来十年的疾病负担进行预测。
1990年至2021年间，中国大陆白血病和淋巴瘤的患病率和发病率有所上升，而这些疾病的死亡率和伤残调整生命年（DALYs）有所下降。相反，同期台湾地区白血病的患病率、发病率、死亡率和DALYs总体呈上升趋势。此外，中国多发性骨髓瘤（MM）、骨髓增生异常/骨髓增殖性肿瘤及其他造血系统肿瘤的患病率、发病率、死亡率和DALYs均显著上升。中国大陆髓系白血病的疾病负担下降，而淋巴系统肿瘤（包括白血病、淋巴瘤和MM）的负担上升，台湾地区未出现这种情况。BAPC模型预测表明，中国大陆和台湾地区几种淋巴系统肿瘤和MM的发病率预计将上升。
与中国大陆相比，台湾地区在管理HMs方面面临更大挑战。MM给中国人群带来了重大负担。本研究结果为优化医疗资源分配提供了有价值的流行病学见解。
