2010 年至 2022 年云南省东南部地区麻风病的高危时空模式：乡镇级分析。

High-risk spatiotemporal patterns of leprosy in the southeastern region of Yunnan province from 2010 to 2022: an analysis at the township level.

机构信息

Department of Epidemiology, Center for Global Health, School of Public Health, Nanjing Medical University, 101 Longmian Avenue, Nanjing, Jiangsu, 211166, China.

Institute of Dermatology, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences & Peking Union Medical College, Nanjing, Jiangsu, China.

出版信息

BMC Public Health. 2024 Oct 4;24(1):2707. doi: 10.1186/s12889-024-20182-9.

DOI:10.1186/s12889-024-20182-9

PMID:39367377

原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC11451111/

Abstract

BACKGROUND

Despite being preventable and curable, leprosy remains endemic in some undeveloped regions, including China. Wenshan Zhuang and Miao Autonomous Prefecture (Wenshan prefecture) currently bears the highest leprosy burden in China. In this ecological study, we aimed to analyze the epidemiological characteristics as well as identify and visualize the high-risk townships of Wenshan prefecture using the most updated leprosy data from 2010 to 2022.

METHODS

Geographical information system combined with spatial scan statistics was used for newly detected leprosy cases abstracted from the Leprosy Management Information System in China. Global Moran's I index was used to uncover the spatial pattern of leprosy at the township level. Spatial scan statistics, encompassing purely temporal, purely spatial, spatial variation in temporal trends, and space-time analysis, were implemented for detecting the risk clusters.

RESULTS

Between 2010 and 2022, Wenshan prefecture detected 532 new leprosy cases, comprising 352 (66.17%) males and 180 (33.83%) females. The aggregated time primarily occurred between October 2010 and March 2014. The distribution pattern of newly detected leprosy cases was spatially clustered. We identified four high-risk spatial clusters encompassing 54.51% of the new cases. Furthermore, spatial variation in temporal trends highlighted one cluster as a potential high-risk area. Finally, two space-time clusters were detected, and the most likely cluster was predominantly located in the central and northwest regions of Wenshan prefecture, spanning from January 2010 to September 2013.

CONCLUSIONS

In this ecology study, we characterized the epidemiological features and temporal and spatial patterns of leprosy in Wenshan prefecture using the most recent leprosy data between 2010 and 2022. Our findings offer scientific insights into the epidemiological profiles and spatiotemporal dynamics of leprosy in Wenshan prefecture. Clinicians and policymakers should pay particular attention to the identified clusters for the prevention and control of leprosy.

摘要

背景

尽管麻风病是可以预防和治愈的，但在一些欠发达地区，包括中国，仍有麻风病流行。文山壮族苗族自治州（文山州）目前是中国麻风病负担最高的地区。在这项生态研究中，我们旨在分析 2010 年至 2022 年最新麻风病数据，以了解文山州的流行病学特征，并确定和可视化高风险乡镇。

方法

利用中国麻风病管理信息系统中提取的新发现麻风病例的地理信息系统和空间扫描统计数据。全局 Moran's I 指数用于揭示乡镇级麻风病的空间模式。空间扫描统计包括纯时间、纯空间、时间趋势的空间变化和时空分析，用于检测风险集群。

结果

2010 年至 2022 年，文山州共发现新麻风病病例 532 例，其中男性 352 例（66.17%），女性 180 例（33.83%）。聚集时间主要发生在 2010 年 10 月至 2014 年 3 月之间。新发现麻风病病例的分布模式呈空间聚集性。我们确定了四个高风险空间集群，涵盖了 54.51%的新病例。此外，时间趋势的空间变化突出了一个集群作为潜在的高风险区域。最后，检测到两个时空集群，最有可能的集群主要位于文山州的中心和西北部地区，时间范围从 2010 年 1 月至 2013 年 9 月。