DellaVigna Stefano, Kim Woojin, Linos Elizabeth
UC Berkeley and NBER.
UC Berkeley.
J Polit Econ. 2024 Aug;132(8):2748-2789. doi: 10.1086/729447.
Governments increasingly use RCTs to test innovations, yet we know little about how they incorporate results into policy-making. We study 30 U.S. cities that ran 73 RCTs with a national Nudge Unit. Cities adopt a nudge treatment into their communications in 27% of the cases. We find that the strength of the evidence and key city features do not strongly predict adoption; instead, the largest predictor is whether the RCT was implemented using pre-existing communication, as opposed to new communication. We identify organizational inertia as a leading explanation: changes to pre-existing infrastructure are more naturally folded into subsequent processes.
各国政府越来越多地使用随机对照试验来测试创新举措，但我们对它们如何将试验结果纳入政策制定过程却知之甚少。我们研究了美国30个城市，这些城市与一个全国性的助推小组进行了73项随机对照试验。在27%的案例中，城市将助推措施纳入了其宣传沟通中。我们发现，证据的力度和关键的城市特征并不能有力地预测采用情况；相反，最大的预测因素是随机对照试验是通过现有的宣传渠道实施，还是通过新的宣传渠道。我们将组织惯性视为一个主要解释：对现有基础设施的改变更容易自然地融入后续流程。
