School of Postgraduate Studies and the Research Unit, University of Lusaka, Lusaka, Zambia.
School of Business, University of Lusaka, Lusaka, Zambia.
PLoS One. 2024 Oct 7;19(10):e0311445. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0311445. eCollection 2024.
This paper quantifies the economic impact of regime changes and macroeconomic indicators on debt stress in Zambia using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Bounds test. A 1% short run increase in gross domestic products (GDP) increases debt stress by 3.16% and in the subsequent year lowers it by 7.21%; in the long-run the 1% GDP increases lowers debt stress by 22%. In the long-run, a 1% rise in inflation and the lending rate negatively and positively impacted debt stress levels by -1.52% and 3.90%, respectively. Short-run shocks culminated regime change had short-run adverse impact on debt stress by 3.45% in one year and in the subsequent year by -10.35%, with the variables adjusting to long-run equilibrium at a speed of 71.5%. This is the first paper to quantify the empirical effect of macroeconomic indicators and change in Presidents on debt stress, especially in Africa were the problem of the debt trap is perpetuated. The results from the study implies that to deescalate the impact of debt stress on the economy, the electorate should vote in governments that will not fall short on growth driven macroeconomic policies, making it possible for economic sustainability to prevail; and paper seeks to promote good governance and good economic policies as a premise for sustained macroeconomic stability and development.
本文使用自回归分布滞后 (ARDL) 边界检验，量化了赞比亚政权更迭和宏观经济指标对债务压力的经济影响。国内生产总值 (GDP) 短期内增长 1%，债务压力将增加 3.16%，随后一年将降低 7.21%；从长期来看，GDP 增长 1%将降低债务压力 22%。从长期来看，通货膨胀率和贷款利率每上升 1%，将分别对债务压力水平产生-1.52%和 3.90%的负面影响和正面影响。短期冲击导致政权更迭在一年内对债务压力产生短期不利影响，为 3.45%，随后一年为-10.35%，这些变量以 71.5%的速度调整到长期均衡。这是第一篇量化宏观经济指标和总统更迭对债务压力的实证影响的论文，特别是在非洲，债务陷阱问题一直存在。研究结果表明，为了减轻债务压力对经济的影响，选民应该投票给不会在增长驱动的宏观经济政策上失败的政府，使经济可持续性占主导地位；本文旨在促进良好的治理和良好的经济政策，作为持续宏观经济稳定和发展的前提。
