Department of Social Sciences, IQRA University (Islamabad Campus), 05 Khayaban-E-Johar H-9, Islamabad, Pakistan.
Environ Sci Pollut Res Int. 2019 May;26(14):14649-14659. doi: 10.1007/s11356-019-04804-z. Epub 2019 Mar 15.
This study aims to investigate the relationship between carbon dioxide (CO) emissions, macroeconomic instability, real output (GDP), the square of real output (GDP), and financial development in Pakistan using the annual dataset over the period 1971-2016. The long-run analysis is based on the ARDL bound testing approach to cointegration, whereas the short-run dynamics are observed using error correction model. The results of the bound testing approach indicate that there exists a long-run relationship between the selected variables and macroeconomic instability increases pollution emissions. In addition, the study supports the presence of environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) hypothesis for Pakistan economy where, in low-income regime, an increase in GDP causes more emissions and, in high-income regime, the relationship between GDP and CO emissions becomes negative. Finally, financial development variables exert a positive impact on environmental degradation. Based on these findings, our study supports a strong role of macroeconomic stability in achieving the targets of pollution reductions.
本研究旨在利用 1971-2016 年期间的年度数据，考察二氧化碳（CO）排放、宏观经济不稳定、实际产出（GDP）、实际产出的平方（GDP^2）和金融发展之间在巴基斯坦的关系。长期分析基于 ARDL 边界检验协整方法，而短期动态则通过误差修正模型观察。边界检验方法的结果表明，所选变量之间存在长期关系，宏观经济不稳定会增加污染排放。此外，本研究支持巴基斯坦经济环境库兹涅茨曲线（EKC）假说，在低收入阶段，GDP 的增长会导致更多的排放，而在高收入阶段，GDP 和 CO 排放之间的关系变为负相关。最后，金融发展变量对环境恶化产生积极影响。基于这些发现，我们的研究支持宏观经济稳定在实现减排目标方面发挥重要作用。
