Ramzan Muhammad, HongXing Yao, Abbas Qamar, Fatima Sumbal, Hussain Rana Yassir
School of Finance and Economics, Jiangsu University, PR, China.
Institute of Higher Education, Nankai University, Tianjin China.
Heliyon. 2023 Jul 28;9(8):e18574. doi: 10.1016/j.heliyon.2023.e18574. eCollection 2023 Aug.
This study attempts to investigate the mediating role of institutional quality on the relationship between public debt and economic growth in Pakistan spanning 1996-2020. Time series data on all six World Bank World Governance indicators of institutional quality is used in the empirical analysis. Findings of the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing technique and error correction method (ECM) confirmed the existence of cointegration among variables of interest. The short-run results indicate that public debt has a favorable association with economic growth, while the relationship is found to be detrimental in the long run. Furthermore, the combined effect of public debt and institutional quality indicators revealed the significant positive association with economic growth, suggesting that better institutional quality can contribute to mitigate the negative impact of public debt on economic growth in Pakistan.
本研究试图考察1996 - 2020年期间制度质量在巴基斯坦公共债务与经济增长关系中所起的中介作用。实证分析中使用了世界银行关于制度质量的全部六项世界治理指标的时间序列数据。自回归分布滞后（ARDL）边界检验技术和误差修正方法（ECM）的结果证实了相关变量之间存在协整关系。短期结果表明，公共债务与经济增长呈正向关联，而从长期来看，这种关系是有害的。此外，公共债务与制度质量指标的综合效应显示出与经济增长显著正相关，这表明更好的制度质量有助于减轻公共债务对巴基斯坦经济增长的负面影响。
