Lee Simin, Baker Christopher M, Sellens Emily, Stevenson Mark A, Roche Sharon, Hall Robyn N, Breed Andrew C, Firestone Simon M
Melbourne Veterinary School, Faculty of Science, The University of Melbourne, Parkville, VIC, Australia.
School of Mathematics and Statistics, Faculty of Science, The University of Melbourne, Parkville, VIC, Australia.
Front Vet Sci. 2024 Sep 23;11:1459293. doi: 10.3389/fvets.2024.1459293. eCollection 2024.
Lumpy skin disease (LSD) is an infectious disease currently spreading worldwide and poses a serious global threat. However, there is limited evidence and understanding to support the use of models to inform decision-making in LSD outbreak responses. This review aimed to identify modelling approaches that can be used before and during an outbreak of LSD, examining their characteristics and priorities, and proposing a structured workflow. We conducted a systematic review and identified 60 relevant publications on LSD outbreak modelling. The review identified six categories of question to be addressed following outbreak detection (origin, entry pathway, outbreak severity, risk factors, spread, and effectiveness of control measures), and five analytical techniques used to address them (descriptive epidemiology, risk factor analysis, spatiotemporal analysis, dynamic transmission modelling, and simulation modelling). We evaluated the questions each analytical technique can address, along with their data requirements and limitations, and accordingly assigned priorities to the modelling. Based on this, we propose a structured workflow for modelling during an LSD outbreak. Additionally, we emphasise the importance of pre-outbreak preparation and continuous updating of modelling post-outbreak for effective decision-making. This study also discusses the inherent limitations and uncertainties in the identified modelling approaches. To support this workflow, high-quality data must be collected in standardised formats, and efforts should be made to reduce inherent uncertainties of the models. The suggested modelling workflow can be used as a process to support rapid response for countries facing their first LSD occurrence and can be adapted to other transboundary diseases.
结节性皮肤病（LSD）是一种目前正在全球蔓延的传染病，对全球构成严重威胁。然而，支持使用模型为LSD疫情应对决策提供信息的证据和理解有限。本综述旨在确定可在LSD疫情爆发前和爆发期间使用的建模方法，研究其特点和优先事项，并提出一个结构化的工作流程。我们进行了系统综述，确定了60篇关于LSD疫情建模的相关出版物。该综述确定了疫情检测后需要解决的六类问题（起源、传入途径、疫情严重程度、风险因素、传播以及控制措施的有效性），以及用于解决这些问题的五种分析技术（描述性流行病学、风险因素分析、时空分析、动态传播建模和模拟建模）。我们评估了每种分析技术可以解决的问题，以及它们的数据要求和局限性，并据此为建模确定了优先事项。基于此，我们提出了LSD疫情期间建模的结构化工作流程。此外，我们强调疫情爆发前准备以及疫情爆发后持续更新建模对于有效决策的重要性。本研究还讨论了所确定的建模方法中固有的局限性和不确定性。为支持此工作流程，必须以标准化格式收集高质量数据，并应努力减少模型的固有不确定性。所建议的建模工作流程可作为一个过程，支持首次出现LSD的国家做出快速反应，并可适用于其他跨境疾病。
