Aidoo Owusu Fordjour, Amaro George Correa, Souza Philipe Guilherme Corcino, Picanço Marcelo Coutinho, Awuah-Mensah Kwaafo Akoto, Silva Ricardo Siqueira da
Department of Entomology, College of Agricultural, Human, and Natural Resource Sciences, Washington State University, Pullman, WA, USA.
Department of Biological Sciences, School of Natural and Environmental Sciences, University of Environment and Sustainable Development, Somanya, Ghana.
Pest Manag Sci. 2025 Feb;81(2):667-677. doi: 10.1002/ps.8465. Epub 2024 Oct 9.
Present climate studies on invasive species imply that climate change will alter the habitat suitability of invasive pests, especially given the projected rise in average global temperatures by the end of 2100. However, globally, limited information exists on the habitat suitability of the mango stone weevil, Sternochetus mangiferae Fabricius, which impedes the development of early detection and preventive measures. Herein, we used the MaxEnt model to estimate the potential global geographical distribution of S. mangiferae.
Our results revealed that thermal conditions played a significant role in explaining the invasion risk of S. mangiferae. Habitat suitability was found in all continents, except Antarctica. Under the present condition, habitat suitability covered 5.67 × 10 km. For ssp126, habitat suitability will decrease from the 2060s (5.58 × 10 km) and 2080s (5.57 × 10 km). Similarly, under ssp585, suitable areas will decrease from 5.62 × 10 to 5.51 × 10 km for the 2060s and 2080s, respectively.
Our study has estimated variability in the habitat suitability of S. mangiferae which establishes a foundation for determining global risk assessment and response plans for the pest. This study also identifies areas where the pest is inherently more vulnerable to the impacts of changing climates and enables forecasting of its potential distribution in a dynamic world. © 2024 The Author(s). Pest Management Science published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of Society of Chemical Industry.
目前关于入侵物种的气候研究表明，气候变化将改变入侵害虫的栖息地适宜性，特别是考虑到预计到2100年底全球平均气温将上升。然而，在全球范围内，关于芒果象甲（Sternochetus mangiferae Fabricius）栖息地适宜性的信息有限，这阻碍了早期检测和预防措施的制定。在此，我们使用最大熵模型（MaxEnt）来估计芒果象甲在全球的潜在地理分布。
我们的结果表明，热条件在解释芒果象甲的入侵风险方面起着重要作用。除南极洲外，在所有大陆都发现了适宜的栖息地。在当前条件下，适宜栖息地面积为5.67×10平方千米。对于ssp126情景，适宜栖息地面积将从2060年代的5.58×10平方千米和2080年代的5.57×10平方千米减少。同样，在ssp585情景下，2060年代和2080年代适宜区域将分别从5.62×10平方千米减少到5.51×10平方千米。
我们的研究估计了芒果象甲栖息地适宜性的变化，为确定该害虫的全球风险评估和应对计划奠定了基础。这项研究还确定了该害虫在本质上更容易受到气候变化影响的区域，并能够预测其在动态世界中的潜在分布。© 2024作者。由John Wiley & Sons Ltd代表化学工业协会出版的《害虫管理科学》。
